Africa’s solar expansion is outpacing official capacity records, researchers say

Africa’s solar expansion is moving faster than official capacity records capture, according to research highlighted in Deutsche Welle’s October 7 report on renewable power in emerging economies. A study produced by Ember with African Tech Futures Lab estimates that installations across the continent will reach 17 gigawatts in 2026. The figure is a forecast for the full year, while gaps in records for smaller systems make it harder for governments and utilities to assess how electricity is being supplied.

The study projects that the 2026 total will be 45% higher than in 2025. It draws on Chinese customs data and a calibrated method to estimate installations in each African country from 2023 through 2026. Because that method relies partly on imports, the projection should not be read as a direct count of panels already installed and operating. The final total for 2026 is also still unknown.

Smaller solar systems are largely missing from official figures

Distributed solar accounted for an estimated three-quarters of the capacity added in Africa between 2023 and 2025, the partner report says. These are systems added by households and businesses at or near the point where electricity is used, outside the large power projects that are easier to track. The report describes unreliable grids and high electricity and diesel-generator costs as common reasons for adding this generation.

The difference between estimated growth and recorded capacity is substantial. Only 12 African countries report an official or semi-official figure for distributed solar, according to the report. Official solar-capacity data is available for 36 of the continent’s 54 countries, and just 14 reported figures for 2025. Those gaps limit any precise account of how much smaller-scale solar is operating across the continent.

African Tech Futures Lab says it plans further work on what the estimates mean for national planning, grid integration and electricity markets, as well as the role of Chinese technology and investment. For now, the report establishes a measurement problem alongside its growth estimate: imports and modeled installations reveal activity that many national reporting systems do not yet record fully.

What the wider emerging-market comparison shows

Deutsche Welle places African solar uptake within a broader shift toward renewable electricity in emerging economies. Its report describes farmers in Ethiopia’s Sidama region moving from diesel generators to solar power for irrigation. That example illustrates a change in how some users obtain energy; it does not establish that fossil-fuel power has been displaced across Africa or emerging economies as a whole.

An earlier Ember analysis, produced with the Climate Vulnerable Forum and V20 Finance Ministers, examines a coalition of 74 countries across Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Latin America and the Pacific. Ember says that, measured by electricity demand, 46% of those countries have surpassed the United States in solar uptake. It also says solar-panel imports are at least three times higher than official statistics suggest in eight of ten countries covered by that comparison. The measures point to uptake and reporting gaps, rather than a common rate of change in every country.

The same analysis says coalition members that are net fossil-fuel importers spent $155 billion on those imports in 2024. Ember argues that cheaper electrical technologies could offer a different route to energy access and development. That is the organization’s assessment of potential benefits, not evidence that lower import bills or wider access have already followed from the solar growth measured in its reports.

Fossil-fuel generation remains substantial

The International Energy Agency’s figures show why fast solar adoption should be kept distinct from a completed transition. Global electricity demand rose 4.3% in 2024, up from 2.5% growth in 2023, and consumption in Southeast Asia increased by more than 7%. Renewables and nuclear provided more than 80% of the growth in global electricity generation that year, according to the agency, but fossil fuels still supplied nearly 60% of electricity overall.

The regional picture also varies sharply. The IEA says coal produced nearly three-quarters of India’s electricity in 2024 and almost half of Southeast Asia’s. Those figures sit alongside evidence of expanding solar markets. They do not support a claim that emerging economies have broadly skipped fossil-fuel generation, even as some countries and users add renewable electricity quickly.

The immediate question for African power planners is how much distributed solar is already in use and where it is connected. The Ember and African Tech Futures Lab estimate provides one view of the scale, but incomplete official reporting and the gap between imports and operating systems leave that question open. Better measurement would give utilities a firmer basis for decisions about demand, networks and future generation.