Labour enters Burnham’s first conference with improved polls and a Budget test ahead

Andy Burnham enters his first Labour Party conference as prime minister with a more upbeat party and signs of a polling recovery. The gap between that improved mood and continuing public dissatisfaction matters as his government approaches its 28 October Budget. Recent surveys show gains for Labour, but neither the polls nor accounts from inside the party establish how long the improvement will last.

MPs, ministers and advisers told the BBC that Labour was in a happier place than it had been a year earlier. Some credited Burnham’s arrival; others pointed to clearer decisions from Downing Street. Those are assessments from people within the party, including unnamed sources, rather than a measure of sentiment across Labour’s membership or the electorate.

A recovery with clear limits

An Ipsos survey conducted from 10 to 15 September put Labour on 27% and Reform UK on 23% in voting intention. The survey questioned 1,031 British adults aged 18 or older through Ipsos’s online KnowledgePanel. A four-point lead offers one indication of Labour’s position before conference, but Ipsos cautions that poll estimates have margins of uncertainty, especially when interpreting party leads.

Ipsos also found that 37% regarded Labour as fit to govern, compared with 25% for the Conservatives. Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats each stood at 20% on that measure, and the Greens at 17%. Those figures describe perceptions of the parties; they do not show how respondents would vote.

YouGov’s September figures also point to improvement without establishing a durable lead. Labour’s main voting intention averaged 18%, up from 13% in May, while 32% said they would consider voting Labour in a future election, seven points more than in May. Willingness to consider a party is a different measure from intending to vote for it. YouGov said Labour had yet to post a statistically significant voting-intention lead with the company this year.

Among people who voted Labour at the 2024 general election, YouGov found that the share saying they would vote for the party again rose from 39% in May to 53% in September. The share saying they would move to the Greens or Liberal Democrats fell from 28% to 18%. That suggests Labour has recovered some support among its previous voters, although these are survey responses about current intentions, not ballots cast.

Views of Burnham and his party remain divided. In YouGov’s open-ended question about Burnham, 43% of Britons gave at least one positive description and 42% gave at least one negative one. YouGov said attitudes towards Labour had improved in recent months, while its measures of the party’s image still tended to be negative. A majority, 53%, described Labour as out of touch; 48–50% used the measures untrustworthy, incompetent or unclear about what it stands for, and 46% saw it as weak.

The decisions behind the conference mood

The immediate political question is how Burnham turns broad priorities into decisions. The BBC reports that Labour figures want more detail on his themes of public control and re-industrialisation. Its account of the party’s internal debate describes pressure to address economic growth alongside demands for spending on public services and support for workers. The party’s improved mood does not settle those choices.

Former business secretary Peter Kyle told the BBC that the government must act with greater urgency on growth while pursuing social priorities. The BBC also reported an expectation that union leaders would press again for tax cuts for workers and more investment. These positions show competing demands on the government; they are not announcements of Budget measures.

The BBC’s account is one part of a wider story about Burnham’s plans. Its related reporting on the people shaping those plans provides further context in an article about Labour’s future direction.

A Budget date, but no settled answers

HM Treasury has confirmed that Chancellor John Healey will deliver the 2026 Budget on 28 October. That date gives Labour a near-term point at which its spending and tax priorities will become clearer. It does not establish what Healey will announce or how voters will respond.

One senior figure cited by the BBC framed the fiscal choice as £10 billion in spending cuts or £10 billion in tax rises. Treasury sources told the broadcaster that they did not recognise that simplified figure. It should therefore be treated as reported speculation, not a government plan or a settled account of the choices facing Healey.

The BBC also reported concern inside Labour about energy prices and cited predictions of household bills rising by £500 early next year. That figure is a prediction, not an increase that has happened. For now, the measurable picture is narrower: Labour has improved in the cited polling, many respondents remain dissatisfied, and the Budget’s effects are still unknown.