Berkeley Earth says 2026 could break global heat record

Berkeley Earth says 2026 is on course to become the hottest year on record, with climate change and El Niño contributing to rising temperatures, according to BBC News. The forecast came as COP31 opened in Antalya, Turkey, on 9 November, bringing representatives from close to 190 countries together for climate talks.

• Berkeley Earth put the chance of a new annual record at 95%, even with two months of the year remaining.
• The World Meteorological Organization expects 2026 to be among the four warmest years on record, rather than necessarily a new record.
• January to September temperatures averaged 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average, according to the WMO report cited by Reuters.

How the 2026 heat forecast compares

Berkeley Earth, an independent US research group, assessed that the year would surpass the previous annual record, set in 2024. The BBC reported the group’s 95% confidence in that forecast; the annual ranking is not yet settled. The WMO’s separate outlook, reported by the BBC and Reuters, is more cautious: it places 2026 among the four warmest years on record. The WMO said a strong El Niño was expected to continue into 2027 and push temperatures higher. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the findings gave “new meaning to the phrase off the charts.”

The BBC identifies rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, largely from burning fossil fuels, as the main driver of long-term global warming, with El Niño adding to the heat. Copernicus, the EU’s climate service, confirmed on 6 November that October was the hottest October on record, the BBC reported. The same report described extensive wildfires in countries attending the summit and a glacier collapse in Nepal that killed more than 1,000 people. Berkeley Earth scientist Robert Rohde told the BBC that repeated record-warm years are what continued global warming would lead people to expect, citing glacier collapse, heatwaves and droughts as examples of larger changes.

What the heat outlook means for COP31

The outlook gives the Antalya negotiations a stark climate context, while the forecasts do not determine the summit’s outcome. The Guardian reported tensions over responsibility for climate impacts and the slow pace of emissions cuts. Australia’s climate and energy minister Chris Bowen, who was to preside over negotiations, told the Guardian he wanted a tangible result focused on implementing emissions cuts and climate finance.

The difference between the two temperature outlooks matters: Berkeley Earth sees a likely new record, while the WMO places the year within a group of four exceptionally warm years. Both point to an unusually hot year, but the final annual result will depend on the remaining months of temperature data.