Brazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro head into a close presidential runoff
Brazil is due to choose between incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro on 25 October after final polls showed a tight contest.
Brazil is due to hold a presidential runoff on Sunday, 25 October, between incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Final polls put them close together, making the vote a choice between another term for Lula and the return of the Bolsonaro family to the presidency.
Lula is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term. Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of him in the first round on 4 October. Al Jazeera's AFP-credited report put their first-round shares at 47% for Bolsonaro and 45% for Lula. The incumbent must reverse that deficit to win the runoff.
How close were Brazil's final runoff polls?
Five surveys in a Reuters roundup put Bolsonaro narrowly ahead before the runoff. Datafolha estimated 48% for Bolsonaro and 47% for Lula after surveying 4,050 people on 23 and 24 October. Its stated margin of error was two percentage points, larger than the one-point gap between the candidates.
Quaest surveyed 3,702 people over the same two days and estimated 46% for Bolsonaro and 45% for Lula, with a two-point margin of error. CNT/MDA put them at 46.3% and 45.0%, respectively, with a 2.2-point margin of error. The estimates differed, but each of these surveys showed a small lead for Bolsonaro.
AtlasIntel/Bloomberg estimated 49.9% for Bolsonaro and 48.4% for Lula after surveying voters from 18 to 23 October; its stated margin of error was one percentage point. BTG/Nexus estimated 47% to 46%, with a 2.2-point margin of error. All five surveys measured preferences before election day, leaving the runoff to determine the result.
Final rallies before the 25 October vote
Both candidates held election-eve rallies on Saturday, 24 October, according to Al Jazeera's AFP-credited report. Lula addressed supporters at Rio de Janeiro's Copacabana Beach, waving a Brazilian flag from a campaign truck. The rallies were the candidates' final campaign appearances before the scheduled runoff.
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Sources and context
- More Lula, or back to the Bolsonaros? Brazil votes in cliffhangerThe Hindu, reporting AFP
- Lula's comeback bid vs Bolsonaro's son: Brazil votes in high-stakes run-offTimes of India
- Bolsonaro, Lula about even in polls for Brazil runoff voteThe Straits Times, reporting Reuters
- Brazil’s Lula, Bolsonaro draw thousands to election-eve ralliesAl Jazeera and AFP
AI-assisted article checked against the listed sources. NewsJaws did not conduct interviews or attend the reported events.