Oil falls after Trump signals Iran talks progress, with supply risks unresolved

Brent crude futures fell to $103.53 a barrel in early trading on October 9 after US President Donald Trump described progress in talks with Iran, easing some concerns about Middle East supplies. Reuters reported the decline as threats to regional shipping and hurricane shutdowns in the US Gulf of Mexico continued to affect the oil market.

At 02:20 UTC, Brent was down 72 cents, or 0.7%, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 52 cents, or 0.6%, to $90.97 a barrel. Those figures were an intraday snapshot, rather than closing prices, in the Reuters report published by CNA.

Trump's Iran comments ease immediate supply concerns

Trump said on October 8 that Washington was holding “productive discussions” with Iran and that no attack was planned before the November 3 midterm congressional elections, Reuters reported. His remarks followed media reports that he was considering an attack before the vote.

There was also a reported response from Tehran. Reuters, citing Iran's Tasnim news agency, said Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated on October 8 that Iran was reviewing the US response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.

Economic pressure continued alongside the talks. According to Reuters, the United States imposed fresh sanctions on October 8 targeting individuals, networks and 17 vessels for transporting Iranian crude, oil products and petrochemicals. Reuters described the war as being in its eighth month; its report did not establish how the new sanctions had affected physical supplies.

Brent remains on course for a weekly gain

Friday's early decline followed a 4% rise in Brent's settlement price on Thursday. Reuters linked that increase to attacks earlier in the week on shipping carrying crude out of the Middle East. Despite the subsequent fall, Brent remained on course for a weekly gain at the time of the report.

WTI, by contrast, was heading for a slight weekly decline, according to Reuters. Neither benchmark's weekly result was final. The report described volatile trading as threats to shipping in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz increased during October.

A separate disruption was developing closer to US production. Reuters reported that Hurricane Isaias, approaching the Gulf of Mexico coast, had prompted producers to shut in about 1.3 million barrels a day, or 62.9% of current Gulf oil production, as of October 8. It attributed those figures to the US Marine Minerals Administration. They describe production shut-ins, not destroyed capacity, and do not establish when output would recover.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters to oil buyers

The International Energy Agency's Strait of Hormuz factsheet, last updated in February 2026, puts average shipments through the passage in 2025 at roughly 20 million barrels of oil a day, representing about one-quarter of world seaborne oil trade. That is a historical measure of the route's importance, rather than a reading of October traffic.

The agency's analysis, based on Kpler data, recorded 14.95 million barrels a day of crude, including condensates, and 4.93 million barrels of oil products passing through Hormuz in 2025. Together, those flows amounted to 19.87 million barrels a day.

Asian buyers were particularly exposed to the route. China and India together received 44% of crude exports passing through Hormuz in 2025, according to the IEA. Japan and Korea were also particularly reliant on those flows. The agency explains that disruption can affect oil prices globally, even though most shipments head to Asia.

Alternative oil routes have limited capacity

Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain rely on Hormuz for the vast majority of their oil exports, the IEA says. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have routes that bypass the passage, but the agency's February assessment estimated available alternative pipeline capacity at only 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels a day.

The IEA cautioned that the logistics needed to reroute substantial flows had not been robustly tested. Those estimates do not establish available capacity in October. The agency also warned that prolonged disruption could restrict access to much of the world's spare oil production capacity, most of which is held by Saudi Arabia.