Chicago soybeans hit two-month low after Lula’s Brazil election win

Chicago soybean futures touched a two-month low on Monday, 26 October, after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential election. The Rio Times reported that the November contract settled at US$12.4125 a bushel, down 15.25 cents, or 1.21%. The decline matters to growers and buyers competing in the global soybean market, where Brazil’s ability to supply China is a focus for traders.

How Chicago soybean prices moved on 26 October

The November contract opened near US$12.42 a bushel, more than 1% below Friday’s close of US$12.565, according to The Rio Times. It fell to about US$12.325 around midday before recovering part of its loss. The outlet said demand from China helped steady prices during the session, after the market had already declined for two consecutive weeks.

Why Brazil’s election mattered to soybean traders

The Rio Times linked part of the pressure on prices to a weaker Brazilian real after Lula’s win: a weaker currency can allow Brazilian exporters to offer soybeans more cheaply in dollar terms. It also cited a fast US harvest and expectations of a large Brazilian crop as pressures that preceded the election. Those factors give traders more than one reason to reassess prices; the reports do not establish how much of Monday’s decline each factor caused.

Bloomberg reported that Lula’s emphasis on engagement with China raised expectations that Brazil could strengthen its position as a supplier to the world’s biggest soybean importer. Brazil accounted for nearly 80% of China’s soybean imports in the first nine months of 2026, according to Bloomberg, despite a trade deal between China and the United States. That market share makes any shift in Chinese buying consequential for US exporters.

Joe Davis, director of commodity sales at Futures International, told Bloomberg that Lula’s support for soybean exports to China would weigh on US soybean prices if Brazil could meet more of China’s demand. Bloomberg also reported that Brazilian agricultural products gained wider access to China during Lula’s term, while Chinese investment expanded in Brazilian port infrastructure, including Cofco terminals at Santos.