Coalition falls to 22% in Essential poll as Australians weigh immigration cuts

Australia’s Coalition fell to 22% of the primary vote in the latest Guardian Essential poll, matching its lowest result in that survey, while 55% of respondents said they wanted the annual migrant intake reduced. The findings, published on 29 September, show how immigration has become a central political issue even though more respondents viewed its effect on Australia positively than negatively.

The Coalition’s figure was four percentage points below its August result. Labor rose from 26% to 29%, while One Nation climbed from 23% to 25%. The Greens were at 12%, a level the Guardian described as broadly steady for several months. These are voting intentions reported by survey respondents, rather than election results or a forecast of the next vote.

A mixed view of migration

The Guardian reported that 46% of respondents saw immigration as positive for Australia and 39% saw it as negative. Yet 55% wanted the annual migrant intake lowered; 29% wanted it unchanged and 16% wanted more migrants. The results distinguish an assessment of immigration’s overall value from a preference about how many people should arrive each year.

Support varied across the measures described in the Guardian’s account. It reported 70% backing forced deportation of people who overstay visas, 68% backing greater scrutiny of protection or asylum visas, and 62% backing a proposal to prevent most international students from bringing family members. Those figures are responses to particular proposals, not a single measure of support for an entire party’s migration policy.

Housing and public services did not fully account for respondents’ preference for lower numbers: 70% said they would still want immigration reduced even if the government built enough homes and expanded services to keep pace with population growth. Essential Media executive director Peter Lewis told the Guardian that support for cuts sat alongside a growing share who regarded immigration positively. He characterised the preference as slower immigration under clear rules, rather than a complete stop.

The political backdrop

The result follows competing migration proposals. The Guardian reported that Labor announced plans earlier in September covering working-holiday visas, partner and family applications, and closer monitoring and enforcement of visa overstayers. These were announced measures; the poll does not establish whether they will be implemented or what effect they might have. The Coalition had yet to finalise its migration policy, although its leader, Angus Taylor, had proposed linking immigration numbers to new housing construction.

One Nation proposed reducing the number of temporary migrants by more than 750,000 over three years, the Guardian reported. Abul Rizvi, a former deputy secretary of the immigration department, told the outlet that the party’s deportation model would cost many billions of dollars and could disrupt aged care and construction. That is Rizvi’s assessment of a proposal, rather than a measured consequence of an enacted policy.

What other surveys show

A separately conducted Roy Morgan survey of 1,561 electors, interviewed from 14 to 20 September, put One Nation at 25.5%, Labor at 25% and the Liberal-National Coalition at 21.5%. Roy Morgan said it was One Nation’s first lead in its primary-vote measure since 10 August. Its field period and polling operation differ from Essential’s, so the figures provide context for the broad party-support picture rather than a directly interchangeable estimate.

Earlier in 2026, the Lowy Institute found that 55% of Australians considered the total number of migrants coming to the country too high. Lowy said this was within the margin of error of its 53% result in 2025, though seven points above its 2024 figure. Citing Australian Bureau of Statistics data, it also reported net overseas migration falling from nearly 540,000 in 2023 to 306,000 in 2025. Those historical migration figures are distinct from the September voting-intention survey.

How to read the poll

The Guardian said the latest Essential poll surveyed 1,022 people last week, but its retrieved report did not give exact interviewing dates or the wording of every immigration question. Essential Research says its fortnightly online survey uses panel respondents, applies age, gender and location quotas, and weights results for those factors as well as education and previous federal vote. Poll-specific effective sample size and error details were not available in the retrieved methodology text. The reported percentages therefore describe survey responses under those limits, not settled public policy or future election outcomes.