Djibouti faces refugee arrivals as Yemen fighting raises Red Sea trade concerns

Djibouti is receiving people fleeing fighting in Yemen across the Red Sea, while the conflict near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is raising concerns about shipping costs for the country and its neighbours. In a report published on 8 October, Deutsche Welle said at least 3,700 people had crossed from Yemen into Djibouti since 10 September, citing the UN refugee agency. An earlier UNFPA update recorded 2,776 new arrivals in Djibouti’s northern Obock region by 16 September. The figures cover different dates and should not be added together.

The crossings bring Yemen’s escalation into a part of Djibouti where public services are already under strain. UNFPA said the arrivals it recorded by 16 September amounted to more than 9% of Obock town’s resident population. It warned that essential services for both new arrivals and the host community could be overstretched without further support.

What changed near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait

DW reported that Houthi forces captured Yemen’s Perim Island in September. The island sits at the narrowest point of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which links the southern Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and is roughly 20 kilometres from Djibouti. Yemeni forces and their Saudi allies launched a counteroffensive in early October, according to DW. The report does not establish an exact date for either development.

The strait’s position makes events on the Yemeni side relevant to African countries across the water. The Houthis have attacked merchant shipping since the Gaza war began in 2023, DW reported. The latest fighting adds to concern about safe passage, but the available reporting does not establish that Bab el-Mandeb has closed or that Djibouti’s ports have stopped operating.

Arrivals put pressure on Obock’s services

UNFPA said Djibouti’s government had registered 2,776 new arrivals on the northern coast as of 16 September. Most were women and children. The agency said limited disaggregated data made it difficult to assess every need, but it identified particular health and protection concerns for displaced women and girls.

At the Markazi site, medical staff recorded four births among newly arrived people within 48 hours and identified two more pregnant women, UNFPA reported. The agency said it supplied Obock’s medical centre with materials for safe delivery, family planning commodities and other essential medicines, as well as 100 dignity kits. It described its work as part of a response led by Djibouti’s authorities alongside humanitarian organisations.

The later figure cited by DW indicates that arrivals continued after UNFPA’s 16 September count. DW reported that many people reaching Obock were women, children and older people. Alessandra Roccasalvo, the UN Development Programme’s representative for Djibouti, told DW that Obock has no groundwater and depends on desalination. Water supply is therefore one of the practical pressures facing the area as its population grows.

Why Ethiopia and regional trade are exposed

Djibouti’s role extends beyond its own population. DW reported that landlocked Ethiopia handles about 95% of its imports and exports through Djibouti’s ports. Changes in shipping costs or access to those ports could consequently affect goods moving to and from Ethiopia. That exposure does not mean the latest fighting has blocked the route.

Roccasalvo told DW that insurance and reinsurance costs for ships had become nearly twice as high and that many vessels were avoiding the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Those are her assessments in the report; it does not provide a published series of insurance rates to quantify the change independently. Higher transport costs could ultimately affect buyers, but the size and timing of any resulting price increases are not established.

DW also described renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region as a separate potential threat to the corridor connecting Djibouti’s ports with Ethiopia. Its report said advances by Ethiopian government forces had reduced the immediate risk of another trade blockade. The interaction between that conflict and the security situation at sea remains uncertain.

For Djibouti, the confirmed immediate change is the arrival of people from Yemen and the demand that places on services around Obock. For neighbouring economies, the shipping implications depend on how fighting and vessel movements develop. The available accounts document an active port system and mounting concern over costs; they do not establish a closure of the strait or a final tally of people who may still arrive.