Downing Street tests public support for UK rejoining the EU

Downing Street officials have contacted thinktanks and pollsters about public support for the UK rejoining the European Union, the Guardian reported on 30 September. The outreach comes as Prime Minister Andy Burnham includes full membership among options for Britain’s future relationship with the bloc. No decision to pursue re-entry has been announced.

The Guardian said Burnham’s aides had spoken to EU experts about how voters might respond to a promise to rejoin, amid discussion of a possible pledge in Labour’s next election manifesto. The account describes officials gathering views, not a government instruction to begin membership talks.

What Downing Street is seeking to learn

According to the Guardian, officials have been in contact with prominent thinktanks and pollsters working on arguments about rejoining and public opinion. The report did not identify the officials or organisations involved in those conversations, or publish questions, fieldwork or findings from any research commissioned by the government. It therefore does not establish what Downing Street’s own evidence shows about support for a particular proposal.

The Guardian reported differing views inside government. Some officials favour a promise at least to negotiate re-entry, while others worry that such a pledge could help Reform UK. Those reported preferences do not amount to an agreed Labour policy. No 10 told the Guardian that Burnham had not considered making a rejoining promise in his conference speech and that no such promise appeared in drafts of it.

Which EU options Burnham has named

The Irish Times reported that Burnham framed the exercise as a debate about how closer European ties might help growth and prosperity. It reported no decision to seek membership. Considering full re-entry is a change in the government’s public range of options: Burnham’s predecessor, Keir Starmer, had ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market and the customs union.

Britain formally left the EU at the end of January 2020, according to the Irish Times. Its transition arrangements ended at the close of that year, when it also left the single market and customs union. The options Burnham listed would therefore involve different changes to the relationship established after withdrawal; his comments did not select one of them.

What existing polling can and cannot show

A Best for Britain report published last week offers one view of the electoral question facing Labour. It says YouGov surveyed 13,433 people between 27 May and 11 June, before Burnham became Labour leader and prime minister, and modelled outcomes across 632 constituencies in Great Britain. Respondents were asked about hypothetical Labour positions ranging from closer ties short of rejoining to full EU membership.

In that exercise, the EU membership scenario produced an estimated Labour national vote share of 37%, according to Best for Britain. The group argued that more ambitious EU positions improved Labour’s projected performance. These are survey responses and modelled election scenarios, rather than an election result or a finding from Downing Street’s reported outreach. The report’s page also gives differing Labour seat figures for its membership scenario, so its vote-share estimate is clearer than a single seat projection.

The Irish Times reported separate polling suggesting broad support for closer EU relations, including a Public First poll for Politico in which 70% wanted closer ties. Closer ties and full membership are different propositions. Neither that figure nor Best for Britain’s earlier modelling reveals what officials have learned from their recent conversations with experts and pollsters.

Political reaction and the next summit

Conservative deputy leader Alex Burghart criticised Labour’s comments, telling the Guardian that the party could not blame a democratic vote from more than a decade ago for the consequences of its own economic decisions. French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed Burnham’s comments, saying ‘Welcome back’ at a Wednesday press conference and describing a move in that direction as good news for Britain and Europeans.

An EU spokesperson told the Guardian that the UK is a close and valued partner, that the British government must set out how it wants to develop the relationship, and that the EU remains open to engaging on options it puts forward. That response leaves the choice of any British proposal with London; it does not announce accession talks.

A UK-EU summit is expected in November, the Irish Times reported, with Burnham planning to use the period around it to debate the options. The Guardian said 20 November was being discussed as a possible date, against the backdrop of disagreement over EU ‘Made in Europe’ rules affecting British manufacturers. For now, the immediate question is what option Burnham will put forward after his review. The reported outreach supplies no published government poll result or timetable for a decision.