Gulf crude exports recover to pre-war levels, but Hormuz traffic and diesel supplies lag

Gulf crude exports excluding Iran returned to their pre-war average in September, Kpler reported in an analysis covered by the Guardian on 1 October. At least 16.5 million barrels a day left the Middle East Gulf region, but the recovery depended on routes around the Strait of Hormuz and tanker transfers near its exit. Crude traffic through the strait itself remained below its earlier level, while diesel supplies were still constrained.

The distinction matters for consumers and businesses that use refined fuel. More crude leaving the region does not mean the same volume is passing through Hormuz, reaching refineries or becoming available as diesel. The Guardian reported continued pressure on diesel prices even as the crude export total recovered.

How Gulf crude exports reached pre-war levels

Kpler counted at least 16.5 million barrels a day leaving the region between 1 and 28 September, excluding Iran. That matched its pre-war average on the same basis and was 10.5 million barrels a day above March’s monthly average. Kpler describes these as minimum confirmed volumes: it adds movements when tracking and other evidence confirm them and may revise the figures as more information arrives.

Of September’s non-Iranian crude exports, 60%, or 9.9 million barrels a day, physically crossed Hormuz, Kpler said. Another 23% loaded on the Gulf of Oman coast, primarily at Fujairah, and 17% left through the Red Sea. Confirmed crude crossings of Hormuz were still more than a quarter below their pre-war level. Regional export recovery therefore does not amount to restored traffic through the strait.

The pipelines and tanker transfers behind the recovery

Saudi Arabia moved crude west through its East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea. Kpler said Saudi Red Sea loadings rose from 0.75 million barrels a day before the war to 4.3 million in June. The United Arab Emirates used its Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah; loadings there rose from 1.1 million to 2.7 million barrels a day. Kuwait, Qatar and most of Iraq lack a comparable route around Hormuz, Kpler said.

For cargoes that still cross the strait, Kpler described a shuttle system: tankers carry crude through Hormuz and transfer it to vessels bound for distant buyers off Fujairah or Sohar. At least 63 very large crude carriers were working in that trade, according to its analysis. More than 70% of crude crossing Hormuz in August changed tankers, compared with almost none of the region’s crude changing ships in the Gulf of Oman before the war.

That system adds operational complexity. Kpler said shuttle tankers often cross with their location signals switched off, so it checks satellite images, vessel draughts, ports and destinations to reconstruct movements. It also said the share of cargo changing ships had begun to ease as loadings outgrew transfer capacity. The Guardian quoted Lloyd’s List editor Richard Meade warning that the recovery in oil flows had come with higher costs and that the underlying threat to shipping remained.

The routes have already had to adjust to further disruption. Kpler said a 10 September attack halted loadings at Yanbu, but the East-West Pipeline restarted later in the month; all seven Yanbu berths were occupied by 27 September. Its September country estimates included at least 5.1 million barrels a day from Saudi Arabia, 3.2 million from the UAE and 2.6 million from Iraq. It had not confirmed a country of origin for another 3.4 million barrels a day.

Why the crude recovery has not restored diesel supplies

The latest separately dated figures in the International Energy Agency’s September oil market report describe August, before Kpler’s September crude total. The IEA estimated that Gulf diesel and gasoil net exports averaged 390,000 barrels a day that month, just over a quarter of their pre-war level. It said refined-product and liquefied petroleum gas exports together were nearly 60%, or 3.7 million barrels a day, below February. Those figures do not establish September or October diesel volumes.

The IEA also reported disruption to Russian refineries and a near-halt in Russian product exports, adding to the Gulf shortfall. In the UK, the RAC reported an average diesel price of 199.18 pence a litre on 28 September, above the previous record of 199.09p set in June 2022. That retail price shows the pressure motorists faced; it does not establish how much of the rise was caused by disruption at Hormuz.

Hormuz remains central to oil supply even with alternative routes in use. The IEA said an average of about 20 million barrels a day of crude and oil products crossed the strait in 2025, around a quarter of world seaborne oil trade. Kpler’s September total also excludes Iran, whose crude crossings it said remained near zero. How much crude can continue to leave the region, and whether refined fuel exports recover, remain separate questions.