Hurricane Polo forecast to reach Baja California Sur as warnings expand

Hurricane Polo is forecast to reach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday at near major-hurricane strength, the US National Hurricane Center said Sunday. Hurricane warnings cover the peninsula’s west coast and parts of mainland Mexico along the Gulf of California. The forecast puts coastal communities on alert for flooding, dangerous seas and winds that could make further preparations difficult.

In its Sunday afternoon forecast discussion, the center put Polo’s sustained winds at 110 knots, or 125 mph. It said tropical-storm conditions could reach parts of Baja’s coast Sunday night or early Monday, spread across the peninsula Monday and reach mainland Mexico early Tuesday. The projected landfall, its timing and the storm’s strength at the coast remain forecasts.

The latest track and intensity

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft made two fixes in Polo earlier Sunday, finding it more or less steady in strength, according to the center’s forecast discussion. Aircraft wind readings did not cover the entire eastern side of the storm, where stronger winds might have been present. The center kept its intensity estimate at 125 mph after considering both aircraft data and satellite estimates.

At 2100 UTC Sunday, the center placed Polo at 21.9 degrees north, 114.1 degrees west, moving north at 10 knots. Its forecast called for little change in strength before the hurricane reached Baja’s west coast. Forecasters said changes within the storm’s core, including a possible replacement of its eyewall, could still affect its intensity before landfall.

The Guardian reported that Polo registered a pressure of 892 millibars on September 22, describing it as the eastern Pacific’s second-most intense hurricane on record. That historical reading is separate from the center’s Sunday assessment of the storm’s current winds. Earlier coverage tracked Polo’s development, including its place among the strongest storms off Mexico’s coast.

Warnings and preparations

The National Hurricane Center warned that heavy rain could produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides in Baja California Sur and Sonora, particularly on steep ground. It said storm surge was likely, especially where winds push water toward shore. Dangerous surf and rip currents were also expected along parts of northwestern Mexico and Baja for the next few days. These are warnings about potential hazards, not reports of damage already caused by a Baja landfall.

The Associated Press reported that Mexico’s National Meteorological Service also expected Polo to make landfall on Baja on Monday. The Mexican navy told AP it had gathered personnel and humanitarian aid at the ports of Guaymas and Mazatlan and deployed three vessels that could carry supplies to coastal communities if the hurricane left them isolated.

One community in Polo’s projected path is San Juanico, a small fishing town on Baja’s Pacific coast. AP reported concern there that washed-out roads could block access to the nearest medical facility, about 80 minutes away in Ciudad Constitución. The concern reflects the town’s exposure if roads are damaged; the report did not establish that Polo had cut that route.

Gloriely Robles Meza, a hotel manager in San Juanico, told AP that residents were worried and had not faced such a concerning event in many years. She said the Mexican Army had arrived to prepare a shelter and support possible emergency operations. An electrical crew was also preparing for the storm’s arrival, she said.

What remains uncertain

The center’s forecast also calls for moisture associated with Polo to reach the southwestern United States and the Southern High Plains late Monday into Tuesday, potentially contributing to heavy rain and flash flooding there. It describes that as a possible indirect effect. The available forecast and reporting do not establish where Polo will ultimately make landfall, how much rain communities will receive, or the extent of any damage.