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Isaias becomes post-tropical over Alabama after Florida landfall, with flooding still possible

The National Hurricane Center ended its storm-surge and tropical-storm warnings Saturday, but forecast heavy rain and possible flooding across parts of the Southeast.

Vice President Mike Pence during a visit to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
File photograph: Vice President Mike Pence visits the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, on June 25, 2019. The White House from Washington, DC (resized and converted to WebP). Public domain.
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Isaias became a post-tropical cyclone over Alabama on Saturday, October 10, after making landfall near Destin, Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center and AFP. The change ended the center’s storm-surge and tropical-storm warnings, but heavy rain and possible flooding remained concerns across parts of the southeastern United States.

In its 0900 UTC advisory, the National Hurricane Center placed Isaias about 25 miles south-southwest of Montgomery, Alabama. Its maximum sustained winds had fallen to 35 mph, and it was moving north at 14 mph. The center said no watches or warnings remained in effect at the time of that advisory. Its last public advisory on Isaias directed readers to the Weather Prediction Center for subsequent updates.

What changed after Isaias made landfall

AFP reported that Isaias came ashore near Destin before weakening inland. Its report described heavy rain and strong winds along the Gulf Coast, where coastal communities had faced mandatory evacuations and business closures. The National Hurricane Center’s later advisory established the storm’s status and position over Alabama; it did not provide a complete account of damage left behind in Florida.

The downgrade describes a change in the storm’s structure and strength, rather than an end to its effects. The National Hurricane Center forecast Isaias to move across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley later Saturday and Sunday, then dissipate on Sunday. Those movements and the timing of dissipation were forecasts in the 0900 UTC advisory, not outcomes already confirmed.

The center forecast 4 to 8 inches of rain through the weekend across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia, with localized totals up to 15 inches possible. It warned that flash, urban and river flooding could occur across the region, with considerable impacts likely in parts of southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia. The figures describe expected rainfall, not measured totals.

The same advisory forecast 2 to 5 inches across much of the rest of the Southeast, with higher local amounts possible, particularly in the Southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas. Forecasters also cited a tornado risk during Saturday morning and afternoon in parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle, Georgia and the Carolinas. They expected water levels along Florida’s Gulf Coast to recede during the day, while warning that swells could still produce dangerous surf and rip currents.

What was reported along the Gulf Coast

An AFP reporter in Pensacola saw winds tear roofs from some homes and businesses and snap tree branches as power went out. Jonathan Ramos, a 40-year-old government employee staying at a hotel there, told AFP: ‘Things are flying really fast, and I've never seen wind this fast before, so it's intense, it's scary.’ His account described conditions at that location; it was not a survey of damage across the wider storm area.

AFP cited poweroutage.us for more than 300,000 customers without electricity in Florida and 200,000 in Alabama on Friday night. Those counts were a snapshot from before the Saturday downgrade and may have changed. AFP also reported that two airports in northwestern Florida had suspended operations and that water service to some buildings was suspended. Its report did not name the airports or give restoration times.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said before the storm struck that supplies and personnel were ready to respond, AFP reported. The agency also said President Donald Trump canceled a planned Saturday visit to a college football game in Tuscaloosa because of the storm. Neither statement establishes the eventual scale of damage or the pace of recovery.

Why the downgrade does not end the flood risk

The National Hurricane Center’s final advisory drew a distinction between Isaias’s weakening winds and the rainfall it could still produce inland. Its flood forecast covered places well beyond the Florida coast. The center said later information on the system would come from the Weather Prediction Center; its Saturday advisory cannot establish how much rain subsequently fell or which communities ultimately flooded.

AFP’s account of the storm’s landfall was an earlier stage in the same developing story. Our earlier report on Isaias making Florida landfall covered the storm before the National Hurricane Center classified it as post-tropical over Alabama. The Saturday advisory supplies the change in status, while the reported outages and visible damage show why conditions remained consequential after the downgrade.

The available reports do not provide a comprehensive count of injuries, deaths or damage, and the Friday-night outage figures should not be read as final totals. The immediate confirmed change is Isaias’s post-tropical status over Alabama; the extent of flooding and recovery after the advisory remained to be established.

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