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Israel’s inconclusive election leaves Trump facing uncertainty over Netanyahu’s government

Neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor his opponents have a clear path to a governing majority, complicating Washington’s dealings with Israel over Iran and Gaza.

Official portrait of Benjamin Netanyahu, wearing a dark suit and tie.
File photograph: Benjamin Netanyahu in an official portrait taken in Israel in 2023. Benjamin Netanyahu, February 2023 — Avi Ohayon / Government Press Office of Israel (resized and converted to WebP). CC BY-SA 3.0.Image sourceImage licence: CC BY-SA 3.0
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Israel’s 27 October election produced no clear governing majority, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in caretaker office while parties negotiate who will lead the country. The uncertainty matters to US President Donald Trump as Washington deals with Israel over Iran and Gaza.

Reuters reported that Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc secured the most seats but lost its parliamentary majority. Neither it nor the rival alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot appeared to have a clear path to forming a government. PBS reported that projections showed opposition parties ahead of Netanyahu’s coalition but also short of a majority; a change of government remained possible rather than settled.

What coalition talks could mean for Netanyahu

The result points to negotiations over a coalition, with another election also possible, Reuters reported. Netanyahu remains prime minister in a caretaker capacity during the unresolved process. PBS correspondent Nick Schifrin said a minority government or a unity government would require political agreements that were far from assured; without either, the uncertainty could persist and further elections could follow.

Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, told France 24 there was ‘no clear winner’ from the vote. His assessment underscores the distinction between leading in projections and assembling enough parliamentary support to govern.

Why the result matters to Trump

Trump endorsed Netanyahu against Eisenkot’s alliance. Hindustan Times reported that Trump claimed on Truth Social his endorsement had helped Netanyahu and turned the tide. The outlet’s account described an interim count with more than 70% of votes counted, so Trump’s claim does not establish what caused the result or who will form the next government.

US-Israeli relations are already shaped by the confrontation with Iran and stalled efforts toward peace in Gaza, Reuters reported. Trump and Netanyahu have threatened another round of attacks against Iran. That makes the identity and stability of Israel’s next government consequential for decisions the two countries may face together.

Reuters reported that some analysts saw a broad unity government keeping Netanyahu in power as a potentially stable partner for Trump, although neither side had shown willingness to pursue one. Asked by Axios on 28 October whether he would get involved in efforts to form such a government, Trump said he had not thought about it and added: ‘I will take a look.’

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