Israel’s October election puts strained ties with Europe in focus

Israel heads into its October 27 election with relations with European countries strained by the war in Gaza and settlement policy in the occupied West Bank, Al Jazeera reported on October 18. Analysts said the vote could change the tone of those relations, but any repair would depend on what the next government does.

The dispute reaches beyond diplomacy. Israel has longstanding links with European governments through intelligence and defence production, as well as participation in European football and Eurovision. Al Jazeera reported that some countries have withdrawn from Eurovision over Israel’s participation and that football ties have faced opposition.

Why Europe–Israel relations have frayed

The tensions were visible in the occupied West Bank on October 17: settlers attacked diplomats and officials from Belgium, France and Poland visiting Palestinian olive harvesters near Taybeh, according to Al Jazeera. The reported assault drew international condemnation.

Public attitudes inside Israel may also complicate a reset. An annual survey by Israel’s Mitvim Institute last year found that 67 percent of Israeli respondents viewed the EU more as an adversary, while 14 percent viewed it as a friend, according to Al Jazeera.

What the October 27 election could change

Middle East analyst Yossi Mekelberg told Al Jazeera that if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned with far-right partners, some damage to relations could become irreversible. He saw room for a more reasonable conversation with Europe under a more liberal government, while cautioning that relations would not change overnight.

Analysts cited by Al Jazeera said a different government could deliver more humanitarian aid to Palestinians and slow settlement expansion. Julie M. Norman, an associate fellow at Chatham House, said European governments would seek concrete steps toward Palestinian statehood and an end to the occupation. Those assessments describe possible policies and European expectations, not commitments by an incoming government.

The outcome remains difficult to forecast. The Associated Press reported that polling suggested a tight contest between a Netanyahu-led bloc and rival parties. It also described Jewish Americans following the election closely because of their ties to Israel, although those without Israeli citizenship cannot vote there.

Arab citizens of Israel, who account for about 21 percent of the population, may also shape the result. AFP reported that their vote was expected to split among four parties on two lists. In the November 2022 election, turnout among Arab and Druze voters was about 53 percent, compared with roughly 70 percent overall. One voter in Majd al-Krum told AFP he intended to vote after previously boycotting elections, fearing that low turnout would strengthen the far right.