IUCN assessment puts 96% of shallow-water coral reefs at critical risk by 2075
A new global assessment places nearly all shallow-water reef ecosystems in its highest risk category when projected climate impacts are included.
The International Union for Conservation of Nature said on 22 October that 96% of shallow-water coral reef ecosystems worldwide face a critical risk of collapse by 2075 when projected climate impacts are included. The finding matters to coastal communities that rely on reefs for food, shoreline protection and tourism, but it describes a risk under a climate projection, rather than reefs that have already collapsed.
How the IUCN reached its 96% reef-risk figure
The assessment examined 127 tropical and subtropical reef regions covering about 188,362 square kilometres. Based on conditions and threats assessed without future climate projections, about 24% of reef ecosystems were classed as critically endangered. Including projected climate impacts raised that share to 96%, the IUCN’s highest risk category, according to the AFP report published by The Straits Times.
The Guardian reported that the assessment used a middle-of-the-road emissions pathway associated with about 2.7°C of global warming by the end of the century, compared with pre-industrial temperatures. The figure for 2075 therefore reflects future climate pressure as well as damage already observed. The Guardian said four of Australia’s 17 reef regions were already critically endangered; all 17 entered that category when projected climate impacts were included.
Heat stress and other pressures on coral reefs
The IUCN identified heat stress from climate change as the most consistent threat driving reef decline worldwide, AFP reported. Warming seas make damaging bleaching events more frequent and intense. The assessment also considered overfishing, pollution and coastal development among pressures associated with reef decline over the past 50 years, The Guardian reported.
According to AFP, the IUCN said overexploitation of parrotfish and groupers threatens 63% of reef ecosystems. Those fish help control algae and maintain ecological balance. In an ecosystem collapse, living hard corals largely disappear and algae, rubble and sponges take their place, AFP reported.
The stakes extend beyond the reefs themselves. Roughly a quarter of known marine species are found in and around them, while hundreds of millions of people depend on reef ecosystems for food, coastal protection or tourism, according to The Guardian.
What the assessment’s scientific lead says comes next
Mishal Gudka, the assessment’s scientific lead, cautioned against treating the projection as an inevitable end for all reefs. ‘Pockets of surviving, resilient coral reefs can still remain in the future, so we must do everything within our reach to set them up for success,’ he said, according to The Times of India. The IUCN called for emissions cuts, stronger reef protection and restoration, and investment in coastal ecosystems and the communities that depend on them, The Guardian and AFP reported.
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Sources and context
- Almost every shallow-water coral reef on the planet faces ecosystem collapse by 2075, UN advisors sayThe Guardian; by Graham Readfearn
- Marine life on the brink? 96% of coral reefs could face collapse by 2075Times of India; edited by Aryan Singh / TIMESOFINDIA.COM
- Nearly all coral reefs risk collapse in 50 years: IUCNThe Straits Times; AFP report, credited AFP
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