Kemi Badenoch pledges inheritance tax change as Conservatives test claims of revival

Kemi Badenoch pledged an inheritance tax exemption for family homes in her Conservative conference speech in Birmingham on 7 October, making the proposal part of her case that the party can return to power. The promise would require a future Conservative government to enact it. Recent polling shows Badenoch’s standing has improved, while public confidence in the party remains weak.

The Conservative leader also placed herself at the centre of the party’s renewed pitch to voters. In a GB News interview marking the end of the conference, she compared the Conservatives to a disappointing football team with a new captain, coach and owner, adding: ‘which is all me.’ The Guardian described a conference dominated by Badenoch, while reporting that some Conservatives worried about the party becoming too dependent on one figure.

What Badenoch proposed for inheritance tax

Under the pledge reported by ITV News, a future Conservative government would abolish inheritance tax on family homes and let couples leave an additional £1 million tax-free. Badenoch said the number of families paying inheritance tax would fall by more than half. Those are the party leader’s projected effects of a proposal, rather than changes to the tax rules now in force.

The available accounts do not establish the full eligibility rules, cost or timetable. Without those details, the precise effect on different estates and on public finances remains unclear. Political opponents accused the Conservatives of ‘fantasy economics’ over the cost of their conference plans, ITV reported; the party said its plans were fully funded. Those competing claims do not amount to an independently assessed cost for the inheritance tax pledge.

How the Conservatives described their path back

AP reported that Badenoch presented the party as being on a path back to power, although polls still placed the Conservatives behind Labour and Reform UK. The scale of the task follows the 2024 general election, which removed the Conservatives from government and left them with 121 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons, according to AP. Her conference message is therefore a claim about a possible recovery, not evidence that one has already been completed.

The conference speech also followed Badenoch’s earlier rejection of a Reform UK pact. Her Birmingham address set out what she wants the Conservatives to offer voters themselves: a tax pledge, a claim of renewed discipline and an appeal to see the party as ready to govern again. Whether those arguments widen the party’s support can be tested against polling, but the conference alone cannot settle that question.

What the polling says about Badenoch and her party

YouGov’s analysis ahead of the conference found a marked improvement in Badenoch’s personal ratings over the previous year. Her net favourability had risen 20 points to minus 15, and her net perceived job-performance score had climbed 39 points to plus one. In its latest figures, 36% of Britons said she was doing well as Conservative leader and 35% said she was doing badly.

Those measures sit alongside substantial reservations. YouGov found 47% had an unfavourable opinion of Badenoch, compared with 32% favourable. Half said she did not look like a prime minister in waiting, against 26% who thought she did. Asked to describe her in their own words, 40% of respondents used at least one negative term and 31% used at least one positive term. ‘Strong’ and ‘intelligent’ were among the common positive descriptions.

The gap between views of Badenoch and support for the Conservatives is central to the party’s challenge. YouGov said 28% of Britons were willing to consider voting Conservative, six points more than a year earlier. Yet only 14% named the party as their main voting intention in September, an increase of two points over the same period. Being willing to consider a party is a broader measure than intending to vote for it.

YouGov also found that 20% thought the Conservatives were ready to return to government, while 59% thought they were not. These figures describe opinion before the conference and cannot show whether Badenoch’s speech or tax pledge changed anyone’s mind. They do, however, provide a clear limit to the claim that an improving personal profile has already translated into a party-wide recovery.

What remains to be established

The inheritance tax proposal’s detailed rules, fiscal cost and implementation date have yet to be established in the cited accounts. The political question is separate: whether Badenoch’s greater visibility can lift a party whose readiness for government is still doubted by most respondents in YouGov’s survey. Future policy detail and subsequent polling will provide firmer tests of those claims.