Merz vows to continue reforms after CDU exits a German state parliament

Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he would remain in office and continue his reform programme after his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) failed to win seats in the parliament of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in the September 20 election. The preliminary result put the CDU below the five-percent threshold for representation, an unprecedented outcome for the party in a German state election. The result has sharpened questions about his leadership and the governing parties’ support.

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) led the state vote with 38.2%, according to preliminary results reported by tagesschau. The Social Democrats (SPD), led in the state by Premier Manuela Schwesig, followed with 35.5%. The CDU received 4.9%, just short of the threshold. For voters in the state, the next question is which parties can form a government from that result.

A sharp change in the state vote

The AfD’s preliminary share was more than twice the 16.7% it received in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania’s 2021 election. The SPD’s share fell from 39.6% in 2021 to 35.5%, but it remained close behind the AfD. The CDU had received 13.3% in 2021; its fall to 4.9% leaves it without seats in the new state parliament under the reported result.

Those figures describe how parties performed, rather than why individuals voted as they did. The BBC has reported public concerns about energy costs, pressure on German industry and migration as part of the country’s political backdrop. The election figures alone cannot establish how much any one of those issues influenced voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

The route to a state government

The SPD could not continue its existing state coalition with Die Linke alone on the preliminary figures, according to tagesschau. A combination of the SPD, Die Linke and the Greens offered a possible majority. Die Linke received 6.5% and the Greens 5.7%; both would have seats, while the CDU’s 4.9% left it outside parliament. Those arithmetic possibilities still required political agreement.

On September 21, the SPD’s state executive voted unanimously to begin exploratory talks with Die Linke and the Greens about possible cooperation, according to the party’s state organisation. That decision opened discussions; it did not amount to an agreed coalition. The composition of the next government depended on whether those parties could settle terms for working together.

AfD state figure Leif-Erik Holm said his party would invite the others to talks, tagesschau reported. The broadcaster also reported that other parties rejected a coalition with the AfD, limiting its apparent route to government despite its lead. The distinction matters: coming first in a state election gives a party the largest vote share, but does not by itself provide a parliamentary majority.

Pressure beyond Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

Berlin voted on the same day. The BBC reported that Die Linke finished first there, ahead of Merz’s CDU, adding to the chancellor’s difficult run of regional results. The broadcaster also reported CDU losses in Saxony-Anhalt earlier in September. The contests took place in different states, so their results should be read as separate elections rather than as a single nationwide vote.

The Berlin result is part of the political pressure described in NewsJaws’ earlier account of Merz’s response to the state elections.

Merz ally Jürgen Hardt told the BBC that replacing the chancellor would leave the governing parties facing the same challenges. He said Merz would work on his shortcomings while the CDU worked on itself. His remarks point to a party response centred on changing its approach under Merz, even as the election results have raised questions about his standing.