Oil rises as Gulf shipping attacks overshadow stock-release push

Oil prices rose in early trading on October 8 as attacks on shipping in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz sustained concerns about Middle Eastern supplies, Reuters reported. The rebound followed an International Energy Agency push to accelerate emergency stock releases, highlighting continuing risks to a major route for global energy supplies.

At 01:16 UTC, Brent crude futures were up $1.33, or 1.33%, at $101.53 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained $1.11, or 1.26%, to $89.39. Those figures represent an early-session snapshot, rather than closing prices.

Prices had settled lower on October 7 after the IEA announcement, according to Reuters. The following morning’s gains came as shipping threats persisted and U.S. inventory figures showed a larger-than-expected fall in crude stocks.

Gulf exports continue despite tanker attacks

Reuters reported that attacks on tankers passing through Hormuz reached their highest weekly level of the war during the preceding week, while Gulf producers increased exports. Its report did not provide a numerical incident count or a detailed methodology for that comparison.

More crude was leaving the Gulf, but at increased cost and risk to cargoes and crews, Reuters reported. Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in an October 8 note that producers appeared willing to risk damage to vessels to get their oil to international markets.

What the IEA has released and what remains pledged

In its October 7 statement, the IEA said member governments supported accelerating releases already announced under their March 2026 collective action. They also backed prioritising diesel releases where possible because of tightness in diesel markets.

Approximately 325 million barrels had already been released under that action, the agency said. Some countries had supplied more than they originally pledged, making completed releases distinct from the commitments still outstanding.

Fulfilling all remaining March pledges would bring approximately 100 million barrels to market, according to the IEA. That figure describes supply still to be released; the statement did not say those barrels had already arrived or set a firm completion deadline.

Separately, member governments retained around 1.1 billion barrels of publicly held emergency oil stocks, including more than 200 million barrels of diesel. The IEA said it stood ready to release more if required, without announcing an additional release in that statement.

Hynes cautioned against treating emergency inventories as a permanent addition to supply. “Ultimately, strategic stock releases can augment supply flows temporarily but do not create new production capacity,” he said, according to Reuters.

U.S. crude and diesel inventories fall

U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ending October 2, Reuters reported, citing Energy Information Administration data released on October 7. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a smaller decline of 1.7 million barrels.

Distillate inventories, which include diesel and jet fuel, declined by 42,000 barrels to 105.14 million barrels. Reuters described those holdings as well below levels recorded at the same time of year over the preceding five years, without giving a percentage shortfall.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters to oil buyers

The strait lies between Oman and Iran, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. An EIA analysis published in June 2025 described it as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints, capable of accommodating the largest crude tankers.

That analysis put 2024 oil flows through Hormuz at 20 million barrels a day, equivalent to about 20% of global petroleum-liquids consumption. These are historical measures of the route’s importance, not estimates of October 2026 traffic.

Asian markets received 84% of the crude and condensate passing through Hormuz in 2024, the EIA estimated. China, India, Japan and South Korea together accounted for 69% of total flows, showing the region’s substantial exposure to this shipping route.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah offer bypass routes. Nevertheless, the EIA’s historical analysis found that most volumes passing through Hormuz had no alternative exit. It warned that chokepoint disruption can delay supplies and raise shipping costs.

What happens next to emergency releases

The IEA said it would continue monitoring implementation and review conditions at its governing board meeting the following week. Its statement supplied neither a daily release rate nor country allocations for the outstanding pledges, leaving the timing of that additional market supply uncertain.