Quaest poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in a technical tie ahead of Brazil runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro has 46% support and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44% in Quaest’s first national runoff poll, a gap within the survey’s two-point margin of error.
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 46% to 44% in Quaest’s first national poll of Brazil’s presidential runoff, released on Wednesday, 14 October. The two-point gap falls within the survey’s margin of error, leaving the candidates in a technical tie ahead of the 25 October vote.
Quaest surveyed 2,154 people aged 16 or older from 10 to 13 October. Both The Rio Times and Reuters, in a report republished by The Straits Times, give the survey a margin of error of two percentage points. The Rio Times reports a 95% confidence level. The poll measures responses during those four days, before the runoff vote.
What Quaest found beyond the head-to-head result
Nine percent of respondents said they would cast a blank or spoiled ballot or would not vote, while 1% were undecided, according to both reports. Those responses account for the remainder of the surveyed electorate beyond the two candidates’ reported shares.
The Rio Times reported that 91% of respondents said their choice was final and 9% said they could still change it. On a separate question about candidates they would never support, 54% named Flávio Bolsonaro and 53% named Lula. The rejection figures indicate substantial stated opposition to both candidates.
In an unprompted question, 43% named Flávio Bolsonaro and 42% named Lula, The Rio Times reported. Another 8% named a blank or spoiled vote, and 7% were undecided. This question asked respondents to name a candidate without presenting the direct runoff choice.
How the poll fits Brazil’s runoff race
The Rio Times, citing G1, reported that Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes in the 4 October first round, compared with Lula’s 45.16%. The Quaest survey measures voter preferences after that contest; its percentages are poll responses rather than the first-round vote count.
Globo and O Globo commissioned the Quaest survey, The Rio Times reported, citing G1. The outlet also reported, citing Correio Braziliense, that the poll cost R$338,178 and was registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under BR-08729/2026. Those details identify the survey behind the figures.
The Rio Times reported that the Brazilian real weakened on Wednesday, giving the Central Bank’s PTAX rate as R$5.0441 per US dollar, compared with R$5.0096 on Tuesday. Citing G1, it linked the movement to US inflation data and election polling; that account does not isolate the poll’s effect on the currency.
A further Datafolha runoff poll was expected on Thursday, 15 October, The Rio Times reported, citing O Povo. With Quaest’s fieldwork ending on 13 October, its results cannot establish how respondents who were undecided or considering a blank ballot will vote on 25 October.
Sources and context
- Quaest Poll Puts Flávio at 46%, Lula at 44%The Rio Times
- Flavio Bolsonaro slightly leads Lula in Brazil runoff, Quaest poll showsReuters, republished by The Straits Times
AI-assisted article checked against the listed sources. NewsJaws did not conduct interviews or attend the reported events.
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