Ryanair’s O’Leary warns European airfares could rise by up to 20% in 2027

Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary warned in Brussels on 20 October that European airfares could rise by up to 20% in 2027 if fuel prices remain twice their pre-war level, according to POLITICO. He said airlines could also offer fewer seats as contracts that have shielded them from higher fuel costs expire.

O’Leary described the potential rise as Europe’s biggest airfare increase in history. The figure is his conditional estimate, tied to fuel prices staying elevated, rather than a fare increase Ryanair has announced. For passengers, his warning points to a risk of paying more while having fewer flight options next year.

Why Ryanair’s fuel hedges matter for 2027 fares

In a statement on 18 May, Ryanair said it had hedged 80% of its fuel requirements for its financial year ending in 2027 at about $67 a barrel through April 2027. The company said jet-fuel spot prices had exceeded $150 a barrel and warned that higher prices for its unhedged fuel could lift unit costs by a mid-single-digit percentage. Those earlier figures explain the protection Ryanair had secured for the nearer term; O’Leary’s warning concerns its exposure beyond those contracts.

Ryanair’s May statement projected 4% traffic growth to 216 million passengers in that financial year. O’Leary’s later warning concerned the wider airline market: he forecast sharply reduced capacity in the coming winter and summer 2027 as carriers face financial pressure. He told POLITICO Ryanair would remain profitable if oil prices stayed high, though less profitable than it is now.

Belgian route cuts have a separate cause

Ryanair is cutting 20 routes from Belgium this winter in response to higher national aviation taxes, POLITICO reported. The tax rose from €2 in 2025 to €7 from January. Those route cuts are a current company action with a stated tax-related cause, separate from O’Leary’s forecast about fuel prices and capacity across Europe.

O’Leary also renewed Ryanair’s call to extend the EU Emissions Trading System to long-haul flights operated by European rivals. The system currently covers aviation emissions from flights within the European Economic Area and flights to Switzerland and the UK, according to POLITICO. The European Commission has proposed extending carbon pricing from 2029 to some flights departing the EU, including routes to North Africa and the Middle East.