South Africa leads Guardian’s 2027 Rugby World Cup power rankings

South Africa tops a power ranking of the 24 teams headed to the 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia, published by the Guardian on 1 October 2026. Gerard Meagher places the defending champions ahead of New Zealand and France, drawing on their recent Test results while treating next year’s tournament prospects as an assessment rather than a settled outcome.

Ireland, host nation Australia and Scotland complete the Guardian’s top six. The ordering captures how one rugby writer sees the field a year before the tournament: South Africa’s series victory over New Zealand carries weight, but a defeat to Australia in Perth shows that recent form does not point in only one direction.

Why South Africa leads the Guardian’s ranking

South Africa took its four-Test series against New Zealand 3-1, finishing with a 43-28 win in Baltimore on 12 September. The Springboks went into that final match 2-1 ahead, according to an AFP match report published by Rugby.com.au. The Guardian highlights the turnaround from a 1-0 series deficit as the strongest part of its case for putting South Africa first.

The Baltimore result followed a second-half surge. AFP reported tries by Malcolm Marx, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Cameron Hanekom among South Africa’s scores, and described its advantage at the breakdown, set piece and in the aerial contest. Those details help explain the result; they do not establish that the same strengths will decide matches at the World Cup.

The latest result in the Guardian’s assessment cuts the other way. Australia beat South Africa 42-38 in Perth on 27 September, according to AAP. The Wallabies led 42-17 after Max Jorgensen’s try in the 64th minute, then had four players sent to the sin bin in the closing stages. South Africa narrowed the gap to four points, but Australia held on with 11 players on the field.

The Guardian notes that South Africa fielded a second-string side in Perth. It still treats the champions as the team to beat because of the New Zealand series and the qualities it sees in their pack. That is Meagher’s judgment about the teams as they stand, not an official ranking or a prediction that South Africa will retain the trophy.

New Zealand and France are the closest challengers

New Zealand is second in the Guardian list despite losing the series to South Africa. Meagher argues that the All Blacks remain the closest challengers, pointing to their pace and handling under coach Dave Rennie and singling out Ardie Savea. The series score is established by the AFP report; the assessment of how New Zealand compares with other contenders belongs to the Guardian.

France is third. The Guardian points to the depth available to coach Fabien Galthié and to a summer series in which an understrength French side ran New Zealand close. Its account also identifies tighthead prop as a question to resolve and says Emmanuel Meafou will miss autumn fixtures, including a rematch with South Africa. Those squad and selection considerations can change before the World Cup.

Where Ireland, Australia and Scotland stand

The Guardian ranks Ireland fourth. It cites a summer defeat by New Zealand alongside wins over Australia and Japan that increased competition for places. Meagher also identifies the fly-half selection as unresolved. The combination explains why Ireland sits behind the first three in this particular assessment, while leaving room for its squad to change over the coming year.

Australia is fifth, with its Perth win providing the clearest recent result in its favour. AAP reported a crowd of 54,678 and a finish in which the Wallabies protected a four-point lead after their four sin bins. Coach Les Kiss called the final 10 minutes ‘bizarre’ and said his players ‘found a way’. The Guardian argues the victory could lift the hosts’ confidence, but that effect is an interpretation rather than a measured result.

Scotland takes sixth place. The Guardian points to its wins over England and France in the Six Nations and summer results against Argentina and Fiji. Meagher also describes a first victory over New Zealand as a test of whether Scotland’s progress will hold. For now, sixth is a snapshot of the form he sees, not a claim about how far Scotland will advance in Australia.

How the remaining teams are placed

England follows Scotland in seventh, with Argentina eighth, Japan ninth, Wales 10th, Italy 11th and Fiji 12th. The Guardian groups positions 13 to 18 as ‘Best of the rest’ and positions 19 to 24 as ‘Outsiders’. Those labels are part of its editorial rundown of all 24 teams, rather than a separate tournament classification.

The rankings give readers a comparison at this point in the build-up, supported in part by South Africa’s series win and Australia’s Perth result. They leave the central sporting question open: results, selection and fitness over the next year will shape the teams that actually take the field in 2027. The Guardian’s projected matchups and judgments about which sides might challenge South Africa remain conditional.