Texas Senate race essentially tied as Paxton and Talarico battle for turnout
A CBS News/YouGov poll shows Republican Ken Paxton benefits from Texas's GOP leanings, while Democrat James Talarico is boosted by economic concerns and character perceptions, with turnout set to decide.
The Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is essentially tied, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll published on 18 October 2026, and will be decided by turnout.
The contest is critical to either party securing a Senate majority, The Guardian reported, and some polls even show Talarico leading. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.
The poll found Paxton benefits from the state's overall Republican leanings, while Talarico is boosted by voters' economic concerns and higher perceptions of his personal character to serve as senator.
Talarico's standing is also helped by more Democrats saying they will definitely vote. Among voters negatively affected by higher prices, Talarico enjoys a sizable lead over Paxton.
The poll found the cost of living is the top issue for Texas voters, and most say they have been negatively affected by higher prices. More voters see Talarico as having the right character to serve as senator.
Talarico draws 5% of voters who identify as Republicans and 9% of people who say they never vote for Democrats but will this time, according to the poll.
Greater support in Texas for the Trump administration's deportation programme compared with the national CBS News poll advantages Paxton. Nearly half of Texas voters view Talarico as "very liberal", and those voters are backing Paxton.
Latino voters in Texas swung toward Trump in 2024, but most are now backing Talarico, the poll found.
The CBS News/YouGov survey interviewed 1,492 registered voters in Texas between 8 and 16 October 2026. The margin of error is 3.4 points for registered voters and 3.5 points for likely voters.
Contested record and debate dodges
Paxton has repeatedly dodged opportunities to debate Talarico, enabling Talarico's campaign to paint him as cowardly, The Guardian reported.
The Wall Street Journal reported this week that Paxton was filmed at a 2024 New Year's Eve party in Dubai in the company of an extramarital girlfriend and two men under indictment for federal healthcare fraud and considered fugitives. One of them had donated $190,000 to Paxton.
A Paxton campaign spokesman told the Wall Street Journal that Paxton has been politically persecuted for years, like President Trump.
James Henson of the Texas Politics Project said this is the closest race in the state in three decades.
What happens next
With the race essentially tied and all about turnout, both campaigns will focus on mobilising their bases in the final stretch before the election.
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Sources and context
- Getaway cars, affairs, Dubai fugitives: Trump’s pick Ken Paxton brings baggage to Senate race in TexasThe Guardian
- CBS News poll shows a Texas toss-up with Talarico, Paxton in tight Senate raceCBS News
AI-assisted article checked against the listed sources. NewsJaws did not conduct interviews or attend the reported events.