Tom Cruise’s Digger falls 60% in second weekend as loss forecasts diverge

Tom Cruise’s Digger fell about 60% at the North American box office in its second weekend, taking an estimated $3.2 million, according to the Los Angeles Times. By October 12, the film had earned $35.3 million worldwide after two weekends. Its performance has led to sharply different forecasts of Warner Bros.’ potential loss.

How much has Digger earned?

The Los Angeles Times said Digger opened to $8 million in North America before dropping to an estimated $3.2 million the following weekend. It described the opening as Cruise’s lowest as a leading man since 2007’s Lions for Lambs. The BBC also reported a roughly 60% second-weekend decline and put worldwide ticket sales at about $35 million.

The Associated Press independently placed Digger eighth in North American theaters for the weekend, also estimating its receipts at $3.2 million. That placement reflects a weekend in which several other releases drew more ticket sales, while Digger was already in its second week of release.

Why forecasts of Digger’s loss differ

The BBC reported that analysts expected Digger, in which Cruise plays oil magnate Digger Rockwell, to lose about $245 million. The Los Angeles Times, citing industry sources, put Warner Bros.’ potential loss at at least $150 million after counting income beyond cinemas, including premium video-on-demand and streaming. These are forecasts using different assumptions, rather than final studio accounts.

The BBC said Variety projected that Digger would finish with about $50 million worldwide and estimated it would need about $350 million to break even. Warner Bros. gave Variety a $300 million break-even figure, according to the BBC. Both thresholds are substantially above the $35.3 million global gross reported after two weekends, though the film’s final theatrical total remains unknown.

The Los Angeles Times reported that industry analyst David A. Gross expected a substantial loss even with respectable income from channels outside theaters. How much the film eventually earns from those channels is central to the difference between the reported loss estimates. Ticket sales alone cannot establish Warner Bros.’ final result.

What analysts say about the audience response

The Los Angeles Times described reviews as polarizing and reported a 53% Rotten Tomatoes score and a C+ CinemaScore from opening-night audiences. It said analysts viewed the film as difficult to market, citing a major plot twist and Cruise’s nearly unrecognizable appearance as possible obstacles. Those are analysts’ explanations, rather than established causes of the ticket-sales decline.

Cruise said the previous week that he does not make films with opening weekend in mind, the BBC reported. He said he hopes his films will ‘translate, last and evolve.’ His comments describe his approach to a film’s life beyond its debut, as industry forecasts focus on Digger’s current earnings and expected future receipts.

AP quoted Paul Dergarabedian, Rentrak’s head of marketplace trends, saying October is a period when studios take chances and the outcomes do not always work. He said topical films may or may not resonate with audiences. His remarks addressed the wider weekend market, rather than offering a specific prediction for Digger.

What Digger means for Warner Bros.

The Los Angeles Times reported that Digger opened on October 2, the day Warner Bros. film chiefs Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy departed. It said Paramount completed its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery four days later and that the combined company took the name Skydance. The film’s performance is therefore unfolding during a change in the studio’s leadership and ownership.

As of its October 12 report, the Los Angeles Times said none of Warner Bros.’ 2026 releases had crossed $100 million domestically. It also cited Bernstein Research’s expectation that next year’s slate, including a Minecraft sequel and a new Lord of the Rings film, could lift studio revenue. For Digger, the final theatrical gross and subsequent income will determine how close either current loss forecast comes to the eventual result.