Toronto mayoral polls show close Chow–Bradford race ahead of October 26 vote
A new Liaison Strategies survey gives Brad Bradford a narrow edge over Mayor Olivia Chow, while another recent poll puts Chow ahead.
A Liaison Strategies survey released October 21 puts Brad Bradford narrowly ahead of Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow before the city’s October 26 mayoral election. Global News reported that Bradford had 49% support and Chow 47% among decided and leaning voters. The two-point gap offers neither campaign a clear lead, while other recent polls disagree on who is ahead.
Three per cent of respondents in the new Liaison poll chose someone else, Global News reported. David Valentin, a principal at Liaison, said the race was less comfortable for Chow than it had been a week earlier, but called the latest result too close for either campaign to treat as a clear lead.
How the Toronto mayoral polls compare
The shift is marked against Liaison’s October 13 survey, which put Chow at 51% and Bradford at 46% among decided and leaning voters, with 3% choosing someone else. Liaison surveyed 1,000 Toronto residents on October 8 and 9 using automated telephone interviews reached through random digit dialing on landlines and mobile phones. It weighted the results to 2021 Census targets.
Liaison reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for that earlier survey’s total sample, 19 times out of 20, and said the margin was higher for smaller groups within it. That figure applies to the October 13 release; it should not be used as the margin for the newer survey.
Global News reported that a Mainstreet Research poll published October 20 also gave Bradford a narrow advantage, at 48.9% to Chow’s 47.5%. Mainstreet surveyed 1,000 Toronto adults and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, with larger margins for subsamples.
A Pollara Strategic Insights survey published the same day pointed the other way: Chow led Bradford 53% to 46% among decided voters, according to Global News. Pollara surveyed eligible Toronto voters from October 13 to 19 through an online panel and live telephone interviews. It said no margin of error applies because the sample included an online panel.
What the results mean before October 26
The surveys differ in their respondents, methods and treatment of undecided voters, so their percentages are not directly interchangeable. Together, the reported results show a competitive race, but they do not establish which candidate will win. Advance voting has closed, and voters’ next chance to cast a ballot is on election day, October 26, Global News reported.
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Sources and context
- New poll shows deadlock between Chow and Bradford days before Toronto electionGlobal News
- Toronto: Chow 51%, Bradford 46%; Renters and Owners SplitLiaison Strategies (polling firm’s release; primary for its own survey)
AI-assisted article checked against the listed sources. NewsJaws did not conduct interviews or attend the reported events.