Election experts warn the midterm vote-counting period could become a focus for false claims

Election experts have warned that the days spent counting ballots after the November 3 US midterms could give Donald Trump and his allies an opening to cast doubt on results. Their concern, reported by the Guardian on September 27, is about a possible challenge during a normal counting period. It is a forecast, not a report that the 2026 count has been disrupted.

The warning matters because election-night totals are incomplete in states where officials must still check and count eligible ballots. In California, for example, county officials can take up to 30 days to finish their official canvass, according to the Secretary of State. Results can change during that process as valid ballots are added.

Why experts are concerned

Caitlin Durkovich, a former deputy homeland security adviser, told the Guardian she expected the administration, after losing court fights over election changes, might invoke foreign interference claims after voting ends and try to seize equipment or ballots. She presented that as a concern about what could happen, not as evidence of a plan or an action already taken.

Durkovich said the waiting period can allow doubt to surface and spread when domestic or foreign actors amplify it. Larry Norden, vice-president of the Brennan Center for Justice’s elections and government program, told the Guardian that state election officials are explaining the process before voting ends to help the public understand why results may take time.

Ben Hovland, a former chair of the Election Assistance Commission, told the Guardian that ballots were already going out in states and that courts considering changes to election procedures needed to take that timing into account. Norden said voters still had multiple ways to vote. Their comments place the warnings alongside the practical work of administering an election already under way.

What happens after election night

California’s Secretary of State says its election-night figures are semi-official. Counties report early totals after polls close, then continue processing ballots during the canvass. Those later ballots can include provisional votes, ballots cast after conditional same-day registration, and mail ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive within seven days. A delayed final result, by itself, is therefore consistent with the state’s published rules.

County officials must verify voters’ registration and check signatures on mail-ballot envelopes. When a signature is missing or does not match the one on file, officials must contact the voter so it can be verified. California also requires a public manual tally of 1% of ballots tabulated by each county’s voting system to check the automated count.

Most ballots must be counted and reported by the 13th day after the election, though the state lists exceptions for ballots that need further processing. Counties have 30 days to finalize their official results, and the Secretary of State certifies statewide results on day 38. These are California’s deadlines; procedures and deadlines elsewhere differ.

The distinction between influence and interference

Beth Sanner, a former deputy director of national intelligence, told the Guardian that foreign influence campaigns should be distinguished from direct manipulation of vote counts. She said she knew of no example of a country interfering with that technical process, including in 2020. Her distinction bears on any future claim that a foreign actor changed an election tally: an allegation would need evidence about the count itself.

Geoff Hales, a former federal cybersecurity official, told the Guardian that election officials had taken cybersecurity seriously. He also said federal election-security support and information-sharing services had been reduced. Those are his assessments of preparedness and support, not a finding that a voting system has been compromised.

The concern about the post-election period follows broader disputes over mail voting and election administration. NewsJaws has also covered Trump’s attacks on mail-in voting and what they mean for the midterms.

The immediate question is whether officials can complete the legally required count while clearly explaining changing totals to the public. The experts’ warnings identify a period of potential political pressure. California’s rules show that counting after election night is part of the election process, with verification, reporting and a final certification still to come.