UK van drivers face estimated £2.5bn rise in diesel costs this year

UK van drivers face an estimated £2.5bn increase in their collective diesel bill in 2026, according to MoneySuperMarket analysis reported by the Guardian on 12 October. Owners of diesel vans and pickups could spend almost £8.5bn at the pump this year, compared with an estimated £5.95bn in 2025. The figures put fresh pressure on the government’s plan to raise fuel duty in stages from January 2027, a cost that trade groups say would add to businesses’ bills.

How the van fuel estimates were calculated

The Guardian said MoneySuperMarket’s analysis put a typical van driver’s annual fuel bill at £1,965, up from £1,294 in 2025. Those are estimates based on typical mileage and fuel consumption, rather than bills recorded for every driver. The £2.5bn fleet-wide increase is also a projection: the Guardian’s report did not publish the full calculation needed to reproduce its nearly £8.5bn total.

MoneySuperMarket’s own account of its typical-van calculation uses an assumed 40 miles per imperial gallon and a forecourt diesel price of £2.38 a litre. Its fuel-price table separately gives £1.97 a litre as the average diesel price for the week beginning 21 September. The two prices describe different measures; the £1,965 calculation should not be read as a bill derived from that national weekly average.

Mileage is another part of the calculation. MoneySuperMarket said its internal policy data showed van drivers covered an average 8,107 miles in January–June 2026. Its table lists annual mileage of 6,964 miles for 2022 and 8,018 miles for 2025. An individual driver’s fuel bill will depend on mileage, fuel efficiency and the price paid at the pump.

Why diesel prices matter to van operators

Richard Smith, managing director of the Road Haulage Association, told the Guardian that many of its members worked on margins of about 2% and some were spending many thousands of pounds more on fuel each week. The association wants a 15p-a-litre rebate for UK van, coach and haulage operators. Smith argued that a fuel-duty rise would feed into food prices, but the reporting does not establish that the proposed rise has already affected shop prices.

Pump prices have moved even within the recent period of high costs. The RAC listed an update on 2 October saying diesel had risen above £2 a litre for the first time, followed by a 9 October item saying it had dipped below that level. The Guardian cited RAC figures putting diesel about 57p a litre above its pre-conflict level despite the dip, and petrol about 42p higher. Those comparisons describe a continuing squeeze even as the latest quoted diesel price eased.

What fuel-duty changes are scheduled for 2027

The House of Commons Library says the government plans to raise fuel duty by 3p a litre on 1 January 2027 and another 2p on 1 March. Together, those steps would reverse the temporary 5p-a-litre cut introduced in March 2022 and maintained by successive governments. The library says the scheduled increase would be the first rise in fuel duty since 2011. These are planned changes, not increases that have already taken effect.

A freeze extension announced in May 2026 left that staged reversal in place, according to the Commons Library. The briefing describes the increases as government policy to be given effect through legislation, including a statutory instrument for the January step. Calls from the Road Haulage Association to cancel or offset the rise therefore seek a change to the existing schedule, rather than the renewal of a cut already promised by ministers.

Simon Williams, the RAC’s head of policy, told the Guardian that higher fuel duty would add to pump prices. He urged the government to consider extending or increasing the duty cut, or reducing VAT, and said 2026 was still on course to be the second most expensive year on record for drivers. His proposals and the haulage association’s rebate request are calls for policy change; neither is an announced government measure.

The Guardian said it had contacted the government for comment but reported no response to the calls to cancel the planned rises. Whether ministers will change the duty timetable remains unanswered. For van drivers, the immediate figure is an estimated fuel bill, while the policy question concerns increases scheduled for next year.