Yemen forces claim advances near Bab al-Mandab as Houthis dispute gains

Yemen’s government military sources told AFP on October 10 that their forces were advancing against the Houthis near the Bab al-Mandab strait, at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, but had not secured the waterway. The Houthis said they repelled the assault, leaving disputed gains around a strategic energy shipping route.

Military sources from both sides told AFP that fighting in western Yemen, particularly around the strait, had killed at least 63 people in the preceding 24 hours: 35 government personnel and 28 Houthis. Those figures are wartime accounts, rather than independently verified casualty totals.

Government military sources also said Mayun Island, within the strait, remained in Houthi hands. A Houthi official gave the same account of the island’s control. France 24’s report with AFP cautioned that rapidly changing conditions and difficult access for journalists prevented independent verification of the warring parties’ claims.

Competing accounts of the Bab al-Mandab operation

The fighting follows the Saudi-backed government’s announcement the previous week of a counter-offensive aimed at retaking all Houthi-held areas. According to France 24/AFP, that announcement followed a September offensive in which the Iran-backed Houthis seized Yemen’s entire western coastline.

Hizam al-Asad, a member of the Houthis’ political bureau, confirmed to AFP that government forces had attacked. He said they tried to advance from Ras al-Ara in Lahj governorate towards an area south of Bab al-Mandab, but claimed they suffered heavy personnel and equipment losses and retreated.

‘Our forces maintain control over Bab al-Mandab, Mayun Island, and the remaining areas along the country’s western coast,’ al-Asad told AFP. His assertion of continued coastal control, like the government’s account of advances, was not independently verified.

Saudi strikes and displacement across Yemen

Saudi Arabia leads the military coalition supporting Yemen’s internationally recognised government. Early on October 10, the coalition said it had destroyed more than 130 Houthi targets in a large-scale operation. The France 24/AFP report did not independently confirm that count or the claimed destruction.

The Houthis’ Al-Masirah television channel reported strikes around Bab al-Mandab and four Saudi strikes on Sanaa international airport on October 10. Those accounts came from Houthi media; they were not independent observations of the attacks or their effects.

The confrontation also extends into Saudi Arabia. France 24/AFP reported that the Houthis were using drones and missiles against targets including transport hubs and oil facilities. Riyadh said on October 9 that attacks on its international airport had killed three people the previous day.

Separately, Houthi media reported on October 9 that two people had died in attacks on Sanaa’s airport. That report concerned an earlier incident than the four airport strikes Al-Masirah described on October 10.

Yemen’s civil war reignited in July after four years of relative calm, according to France 24/AFP. The report, citing UN data, said more than 200,000 people had been displaced since July. It did not identify the underlying dataset or its reporting cutoff.

Why Bab al-Mandab matters for energy shipping

The U.S. Energy Information Administration identifies Bab al-Mandab, the Suez Canal and Egypt’s SUMED pipeline as strategic routes for Persian Gulf energy shipments to Europe and North America. Its October 2024 analysis documents earlier disruption, providing historical context rather than a measurement of today’s fighting.

Using Vortexa data, the agency put oil flows through Bab al-Mandab at an average of 4.0 million barrels a day in January–August 2024, compared with 8.7 million across 2023. It said Houthi attacks on commercial ships beginning in November 2023 had prompted some vessels to take longer, costlier routes around southern Africa.

Oil flows around the Cape of Good Hope averaged 9.2 million barrels a day during those eight months of 2024, up from 6.0 million in 2023. The agency explains that chokepoint disruption can delay supplies and raise shipping costs and energy prices.

Those historical figures do not establish any change in shipping volumes, freight rates or oil prices caused by the October 10 fighting. The battlefield reporting likewise establishes no verified government recapture of the strait, and provides no confirmed timetable for the operation’s outcome.