England and Wales begin new prison release scheme with 700 first-day releases estimated

Prisons in England and Wales began releasing eligible prisoners under a new sentencing model on 1 October, with about 700 people estimated to leave on the first day. The change aims to ease a prison capacity crisis, but it also brings questions about whether probation services can supervise and house people leaving custody.

The Ministry of Justice estimates 4,500 additional releases on the first days of ten phases running from October 2026 to June 2027. That is a modelled total for the start of each phase, not a count of everyone who will leave prison during the period. The ministry says approximately 4,500 people serving determinate sentences are released in a typical month under ordinary arrangements.

How the new prison release model works

The progression model changes the point at which eligible people serving standard determinate sentences leave custody and spend the rest of their sentence on licence. For many, the release point moves from 40% or half of the custodial term to one third. For some whose previous release point was two thirds, it moves to halfway. The Ministry of Justice says people can be held longer for bad behaviour in prison.

The model applies both to eligible people already in prison and to future prisoners. For those already held, the ten phases are organised by sentence length so that people whose new release point has passed can leave in groups. The ministry says the phased approach was designed to make the releases manageable. After each phase’s first day, eligible releases continue under the permanent model.

How many prisoners are expected to leave

The ministry’s estimates put 700 releases on the first day of phase one and 650 on the first day of phase two. The remaining eight first-day estimates range from 200 to 650. All figures are rounded to the nearest 50 and may change: the ministry cites future prison admissions, outstanding proceedings and extra days added to sentences for misconduct among the uncertainties. An actual first-day total had not been established in the published accounts.

This is a further change to release arrangements introduced during earlier pressure on prisons. The government reduced the expected group covered by the latest phases from around 6,000 after reviewing exclusions, according to the BBC. NewsJaws’ earlier account explained the proposed rules; the development on 1 October is that the first phase has begun, with the ministry now estimating 700 first-day releases.

Why prison capacity is driving the change

Ministers say the releases are needed to prevent prisons becoming full. Ministry of Justice data cited by the BBC put the prison population at 87,499 on Monday, or 98.2% of capacity. The Guardian reported the same total and said the population had risen by more than 1,700 over the preceding three months. The government says it is building 14,000 additional prison places.

Leaving prison under the model does not end a sentence. The BBC reports that people released early remain on licence and can be returned to custody if they breach conditions, including by committing another crime, contacting a victim or living at an address authorities have not approved. Ministers have said electronic monitoring and restrictions on movement will form part of supervision in the community.

Probation and accommodation pressures

Probation staff have questioned whether those safeguards can be delivered consistently. Ben Cockburn, national chair of the probation officers’ union Napo, told the Guardian that staff shortages and heavy workloads were already affecting the service. His warning is an assessment of its capacity, not a finding that the new releases have caused a particular outcome.

The Guardian also reported a warning from an unnamed probation source that hostel places in some areas were full and that some people could be released without accommodation. The report identified 13 October, when the next phase is due, as a point of particular pressure. It did not establish how many people, if any, had left prison without somewhere to stay under the new model.

Nacro chief executive Enver Solomon told the Guardian that leaving prison homeless can put people on a path back into custody. A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said the government was working with councils and charities to halve prison-leaver homelessness by 2029 and had committed £700m to probation and community services. Those are plans and commitments; their effects on this release programme remain to be seen.

Electronic monitoring raises a separate practical question. Citing an early briefing from probation and police inspectorates, the Guardian reported that 55% of GPS and radio-frequency tags and 60% of alcohol-monitoring tags were fitted on time. Those findings concern wider monitoring practice. They do not establish that the new release model has caused tagging delays or show its effect on reoffending.