First prisoners released under new sentencing model in England and Wales

The Ministry of Justice’s new progression model began releasing eligible prisoners in England and Wales on Thursday, 1 October, with about 700 people expected to leave custody on its first day. The change moves the release point for some fixed-term sentences as the government seeks to ease prison overcrowding. The 700 figure is an estimate, not a confirmed count of people released.

The Guardian reported people leaving prisons including HMP Wandsworth, HMP Durham and HMP Cardiff on Thursday. Its account included prisoners thanking Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Those comments describe the scenes outside prisons; the release rules come from the government’s Sentencing Act 2026 and are administered through the justice system.

Why release dates are changing

The model covers eligible prisoners serving standard determinate sentences: fixed-term sentences divided between custody and time on licence in the community. The Ministry of Justice says those prisoners will serve at least one-third of their sentence in custody. Some serving standard determinate sentences for more serious offences must serve at least half. Bad behaviour can keep a prisoner in custody longer, with no stated cap on the additional time.

The government says the change is part of its response to a shortage of prison places. Its victim guidance describes a period of intensive supervision after custody, followed by a final period on licence. Release therefore does not mark the end of the sentence: licence conditions continue to apply in the community.

Who is eligible and who is excluded

The progression model applies both to eligible people already in prison and to people sentenced in future. For current prisoners, the government is introducing it in ten stages organised by sentence length. Some people in each stage have already served beyond their new release point when that stage begins; those are the prisoners represented in the first-day estimates.

The Ministry says rape, specified child sex offences, offences linked to organised child sexual exploitation, unlawful killing and indecent assault are excluded from the new model. Life sentences, extended determinate sentences and other specified serious sentence types remain outside it. More than 18,000 prisoners serving those sentence types are not in scope, according to the Ministry.

Individual cases can be more complicated than an offence label suggests. The government’s victim guidance gives the example of consecutive sentences for rape and assault: the rape sentence’s release point would remain unchanged, while the assault sentence could be affected. Eligibility and any revised release date therefore depend on the sentences being served, not simply on a prisoner’s most serious offence.

Supervision and victims’ concerns

The Ministry says people released through the model will be supervised by probation officers and subject to licence conditions. Its guidance lists regular appointments, risk assessments and monitoring. Conditions can include a ban on contacting a victim or their family, an address requirement, or restrictions on where a person may go. Breaches can lead to recall to prison. The government says electronic tagging is presumed unless it is unsuitable or inappropriate.

Victims eligible for and enrolled in the Victim Contact Scheme can be told about release changes and make representations about conditions they believe would protect them, through a victim liaison officer. The Ministry’s guidance also describes a route for other victims to request information. It says recalculating sentences can be complex, so affected victims may wait weeks or longer for an update.

Those arrangements have drawn scrutiny. The Guardian quoted victims’ commissioner Claire Waxman saying the government’s confidence in the plan was ‘not yet matched by the reality on the ground’. Catherine Atkinson, chair of the Commons justice committee, called the releases a regrettable necessity after longstanding capacity problems. She raised questions about pressure on prison and probation staff, electronic monitoring and how communities will manage returning offenders.

What happens after the first day

The Ministry estimates 4,500 first-day releases across the ten stages scheduled from October 2026 to June 2027. That figure is a rounded model estimate, not a count of prison places saved. The first stage’s estimate is 700. Once a stage begins, eligible releases continue under the new rules in the ordinary course; the progression model is intended as a permanent arrangement, not a single day of releases.

Actual numbers may differ. The Ministry says its calculations depend on who enters prison before each stage, outstanding criminal proceedings, time spent on remand and extra custody days imposed for bad behaviour. Its model also uses projections of the prison population. The available figures therefore establish the expected scale of the rollout, while a final count for Thursday’s releases and the long-term effect on prison capacity remain unconfirmed.