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Hong Kong Monetary Authority holds base rate at 4.25% after Fed pause

Hong Kong’s monetary authority kept its base rate steady on October 29 after the US Federal Reserve held rates, reflecting the constraints of the city’s dollar peg.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority headquarters at the International Finance Centre in Central, Hong Kong
File photograph of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority headquarters at the International Finance Centre in Central, Hong Kong, in May 2009. Hong Kong Monetary Authority — Alan Mak (resized and converted to WebP). CC BY-SA 3.0.Image sourceImage licence: CC BY-SA 3.0
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The Hong Kong Monetary Authority left its base interest rate at 4.25% on October 29, following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady, Reuters reported. The decision matters for Hong Kong because its currency peg ties the city’s monetary policy closely to US interest-rate moves.

Hong Kong keeps its dollar within a range of 7.75 to 7.85 per US dollar. Reuters reported that the Hong Kong dollar was last trading at 7.8452 per US dollar. The exchange-rate arrangement explains why a Fed decision in Washington has a direct bearing on the HKMA’s base rate, even as conditions in Hong Kong’s own money markets can vary.

Why the Fed held rates steady

The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, Al Jazeera reported. The US decision came before the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, a measure the Fed uses when assessing inflation and setting policy.

In its statement, the Fed described domestic spending as resilient, productivity growth as strong and capital investment as robust, while saying uncertainty remained elevated. It said gathering more information would help it decide what policy stance was needed to return inflation to its 2% goal.

US consumer-price inflation rose to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August, according to figures reported by Al Jazeera. Energy prices accounted for much of the monthly increase. That inflation backdrop helps explain the Fed’s decision to wait for more data before changing rates again.

What could affect Hong Kong rates next

The HKMA said future US rate adjustments remain uncertain and will depend on inflation, labour-market developments and other economic data. Those decisions may, in turn, influence Hong Kong’s interest-rate environment. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, Al Jazeera reported.

The HKMA also said Hong Kong interbank rates and the currency outlook can move with investors’ appetite for carry trades and with the supply of and demand for Hong Kong dollars. Capital-market activity and seasonal factors can affect those local conditions. That means the base-rate hold does not, by itself, specify how every borrowing rate in the city will move.

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