World Bank forecasts 23% commodity price rise as energy and shipping shocks mount

The World Bank forecast on 28 October that global commodity prices would rise 23% in 2026 as energy costs and shipping disruptions spread through markets, according to a Reuters report published by Dawn. The projection matters for countries facing inflation and food insecurity because the bank expects higher prices across energy, food and metals.

The bank linked the outlook to cargo-shipping disruption during the Middle East war, problems moving grain through the Black Sea and demand for assets such as gold, Dawn reported. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, said: ‘Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once.’ He warned that higher energy costs and trade disruption threatened inflation, food security and economic growth.

Energy prices and oil supply in the 2026 outlook

Global oil supply is projected to fall 5.2% in 2026, the largest decline in four decades outside the 2020 global recession, according to Dawn’s account of the bank’s outlook. The bank warned that an escalation of the Middle East conflict or continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure could worsen the price outlook. It expects overall commodity prices to ease 7% in 2027.

Food prices face a further shock in the adverse scenario

The bank’s adverse scenario combines a record El Niño, more disruption to Black Sea grain shipments, escalation in the Middle East and continuing damage to Russian oil infrastructure, The National reported. Under those conditions, food commodity prices could be 12% above the bank’s baseline forecast, according to Dawn. The bank cited the food crisis of the early 2010s, when more than 40 million additional people were pushed into extreme poverty, to illustrate the stakes of a sustained price surge.

Other projected increases extend beyond fuel and food. Dawn reported that the bank expects metals prices to rise 25% in 2026, with aluminium, copper and tin reaching records amid supply disruption and demand tied to renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres. Precious metals prices are projected to climb 40%, while fertiliser prices are expected to rise 14% because of higher urea prices before returning to 2025 levels in 2027.