Hurricane Polo nears Baja California Sur as warnings extend to Sonora

Hurricane Polo approached Baja California Sur on Monday as a Category 3 storm, with hurricane warnings in force on parts of both coasts of the Mexican peninsula and on the mainland in Sonora. The US National Hurricane Center forecast landfall on the peninsula’s west coast Monday evening, followed by a move into southern Sonora on Tuesday morning. Forecasters warned that heavy rain could bring life-threatening flooding and mudslides.

In its 11 a.m. Mountain Standard Time advisory on September 28, the center placed Polo about 80 miles (125km) west-southwest of Cabo San Lázaro. Maximum sustained winds were 115mph (185km/h), and the storm was moving northeast at about 10mph (17km/h). Those figures describe conditions at the time of the advisory; its projected landfalls were forecasts, not confirmed outcomes.

Where warnings were in force

Hurricane warnings covered Baja California Sur’s west coast from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe and its east coast from Loreto to Bahía San Juan Bautista. A warning also extended along mainland Mexico from Bahía Kino to Huatabampito. The center said hurricane conditions were expected somewhere within the warned areas later Monday into Tuesday and urged preparations to protect life and property to be completed quickly.

Additional stretches were under hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings: the west coast north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia, the east coast south of Loreto to San Evaristo, and the mainland coast south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible, while a tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected. The center gave a 12-to-24-hour window for those alerts.

Rain, wind and coastal hazards

The NHC forecast 6 to 12 inches of rain across parts of Baja California Sur. Southern and central Sonora could receive 4 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches. It warned that the rain could cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly where the terrain is steep. The totals are forecasts for broad areas, not measurements of rain already fallen in any town.

Storm surge could cause significant flooding along coasts exposed to onshore winds, the center said, with large and destructive waves near shore. Swells generated by Polo were expected to affect west-central Mexico and the peninsula over the next couple of days, bringing dangerous surf, rip currents and possible coastal flooding. These hazards can affect places away from the storm’s center.

Hurricane-force winds extended up to 40 miles (65km) from Polo’s center, while tropical-storm-force winds reached up to 105 miles (165km), according to the advisory. A 46mph (74km/h) gust had recently been observed at Puerto Cortés. The center said tropical storm conditions were already occurring in the southern part of the warned west-coast area and were expected to spread northward and eastward across the peninsula through Monday night.

Preparations and the next forecast

The BBC reported that residents had stocked up on drinking water and food as the storm approached. Authorities restricted access to beaches in Cabo San Lucas, and some restaurants there closed. Baja California Sur ordered schools closed on Monday as a precaution. The BBC also reported that Governor Víctor Manuel Castro Cosío said temporary shelters had opened, while federal authorities deployed thousands of navy and army personnel and specialised machinery.

The Watchers reported further statewide preparations, including suspended maritime activity and a civil protection command post in Comondú. It said officials identified Comondú, Loreto and Mulegé as principal areas of concern and listed 169 potential temporary shelters with capacity for 33,192 people. Those are preparations and available capacity, not a count of people evacuated or sheltered.

Forecasters expected Polo to remain near major-hurricane strength when it reached Baja California Sur and to still be a hurricane at its projected mainland landfall. They said fluctuations in strength were possible Monday and rapid weakening was expected after the storm moved farther inland. The NHC scheduled its next complete advisory for 2 p.m. Mountain Standard Time; the 11 a.m. advisory did not establish whether either forecast landfall had occurred or report a damage or casualty toll.