IEA says global diesel squeeze could persist well into 2027
The agency expects supply constraints to continue and says replenishment of depleted inventories is unlikely before the second half of 2027.
The International Energy Agency said in its October 14 oil market report that global diesel supply constraints could persist well into 2027, according to CNBC and the Guardian. The agency expects replenishment of depleted inventories, beyond normal seasonal changes, to begin no earlier than the second half of 2027.
Why diesel supplies remain tight
The IEA said global diesel exports were 700,000 barrels a day lower in September than a year earlier, CNBC reported. A 1.3 million barrel a day decline in exports from Russia and the Middle East was partly offset by higher supply elsewhere.
A Wall Street Journal report by Giulia Petroni, carried by Hindustan Times, said global diesel supply fell by 1.7 million barrels a day in the third quarter as the Iran war curtailed flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian attacks led Russia to cut refinery output.
The IEA said easing Russian diesel export restrictions is unlikely to materially change the global gasoil balance because a lack of operational refinery capacity is constraining Russian exports, the Guardian reported.
Sources and context
- Global diesel squeeze to drag into 2027, IEA saysHindustan Times (article credits Giulia Petroni, WSJ)
- Diesel squeeze set to last well into 2027 as Iran war disrupts supply, IEA saysCNBC
- Diesel squeeze expected to continue into 2027 despite Trump’s deal with Russia – business liveThe Guardian
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