Kemi Badenoch tells Conservatives to prepare for an election ahead of Birmingham conference

Kemi Badenoch has told the Conservatives to prepare for a possible early general election as the party approaches its 4–7 October conference in Birmingham. The instruction puts election planning alongside the economy, welfare and pensions on the party’s agenda, although no election has been called and the timing remains uncertain.

BBC political correspondent Henry Zeffman reported on 2 October that Badenoch had asked her team to treat this conference as though it might be the last before a general election. She believes Prime Minister Andy Burnham could call one within the next year, according to the BBC, but some of her aides disagree. The party’s preparations therefore reflect her assessment of a possibility, rather than an announced election timetable.

How the Conservatives are preparing for an election

According to the BBC, senior Conservatives began holding weekly election planning meetings shortly after Burnham became prime minister. Neil O’Brien, a member of Badenoch’s shadow cabinet, has started work on a manifesto with the party’s head of policy. The intended document is more concise than a typical party manifesto, the BBC reported. These are accounts of internal preparations; the party has not published the proposed manifesto.

The conference will also be used to present people who have applied to stand as Conservative candidates at the next election, according to the BBC. Decisions about who should represent the party have already caused debate: Badenoch has been reluctant in some cases, and opposed in others, to former MPs who lost their seats in 2024 standing again. The BBC identified former cabinet ministers Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt among the prominent names in that dispute.

What Badenoch plans to emphasise in Birmingham

The Conservatives’ conference runs from Sunday 4 October to Wednesday 7 October at the ICC Birmingham and Hyatt Regency Birmingham, according to the party’s events page. The BBC says its slogan will be ‘Stronger economy, stronger country’. Badenoch is expected to develop her economic argument in speeches on Sunday and Wednesday, building on recent proposals concerning benefits for people who have been unemployed for a long time.

Welfare spending is becoming a main dividing line with Labour in the Conservatives’ account of the coming contest. The BBC reported that Burnham favours more investment at the outset in support for people out of work, with the aim of reducing benefit spending over time. Badenoch’s conference speeches will offer voters a chance to compare the parties’ stated approaches, though the details of the speeches have yet to be delivered.

The state pension is another planned point of difference. The BBC reported that Badenoch will reaffirm Conservative support for the current triple lock, under which the state pension rises each year by whichever is highest: inflation, average earnings growth or 2.5%. At Labour’s conference on 29 September, Burnham proposed removing the automatic link to earnings from 2030 while retaining increases of at least inflation or 2.5%, according to the BBC. The distinction concerns the formula for future increases, not a change already in force.

Why election timing remains uncertain

Badenoch’s expectation of a poll within a year is contested even within her team, the BBC reported. In her Conservative Home interview, she acknowledged that Burnham had ruled out an early vote but argued that politics could change unexpectedly. Neither her expectation nor the party’s planning meetings establish that the prime minister will call an election. For now, the confirmed dates are those of the Conservative conference, not a general election.

The Conservatives also have to compete with Reform UK for voters. The BBC reported that some in the party see an opportunity to draw a clearer distinction from Labour on welfare and pensions, but it noted that Reform has often polled above the Conservatives and has won more votes in successive local and national elections. Conference will show how Badenoch presents that case and her prospective candidates; its effect on either rival cannot be known in advance.