Ken Paxton reportedly cited Iran war and fuel prices as problems for Republicans

Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for a Texas Senate seat, privately identified the Iran war and fuel prices as problems for his party, according to audio reported by Axios and described by the Guardian on October 7. The remarks bring a public affordability debate into sharper focus ahead of the midterm election, though their effect on voters is unknown.

Asked what was hurting his campaign at a closed-door event, Paxton reportedly said: ‘It’s not tariffs … it’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel.’ The Guardian, citing the audio obtained by Axios, reported that he called affordability Republicans’ ‘biggest problem’ and said people felt pressure when diesel exceeded $6 a gallon. That figure was Paxton’s reference, not a verified October 7 average.

Axios dates the meeting with donors and lobbyists to September. The remarks became news on October 7, when the recording was reported; Paxton did not make them that day. The excerpts describe his assessment of political pressure, rather than establishing how much of any fuel-price increase was caused by the war or how voters will respond.

How Paxton’s campaign responded

Madison Cercy, a spokesperson for Paxton’s campaign, called the remarks a ‘non-story’ in a statement reported by the Guardian. She said Texans already knew that gas and diesel prices were too high and that families were struggling with costs at the pump and grocery store. The response acknowledged the price concern while defending President Donald Trump’s efforts to lower costs.

What the Texas candidates have proposed on fuel taxes

Fuel prices were already a direct point of dispute in the race. At a September 26 campaign event in Carrollton, Democratic state Representative James Talarico urged Paxton to oppose the Iran war and support suspending federal gasoline and diesel taxes, the Texas Tribune reported. Talarico had called for a pause since April, tied to prices returning below their level before the war began.

Paxton responded on September 26 by supporting permanent repeal of the federal fuel taxes. He said Washington should pay for roads by cutting waste. The Tribune reported no funded replacement plan or enacted repeal. In his response, Paxton did not address Talarico’s demand that he oppose the war; Talarico had described it as ‘a disaster.’

The federal taxes are 18.4 cents a gallon on gasoline and 24.4 cents on diesel, according to the Tribune. Most of that revenue goes to the Highway Trust Fund, which supports highway and transit spending. Suspending or repealing the taxes would therefore raise a separate question about how to replace money used for roads, bridges and public transport.

Citing AAA, the Tribune put Texas averages on September 26 at $3.94 a gallon for regular gasoline and $5.90 for diesel. Those figures show the price setting for the earlier exchange between the candidates. They should not be read as October 7 prices or as confirmation of Paxton’s later reference to diesel above $6.

What national polling says about prices and the Iran war

An AP-NORC survey released October 1 found that 65% of US adults attributed higher-than-usual prices to Trump’s policies. Among Republicans, 67% instead attributed higher prices to factors beyond his control. The difference matters when interpreting Paxton’s reported comments: concern about costs crosses party lines, but respondents did not agree on who was responsible.

The same survey found that 69% of adults said Trump’s handling of living costs had been worse than expected, including 52% of Republicans. Forty-six percent said their families were worse off since the start of his second administration. On Iran, 71% disapproved of his handling of the issue and 69% said the war had not been worth fighting.

AP-NORC interviewed 2,140 adults nationwide from September 24 to 28 using online and telephone interviews. Its reported overall margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. These national views provide context for the affordability pressure Paxton described, but they do not measure Texas Senate voting intentions, prove that the war caused a particular price increase, or show whether the recording will change the race.