Oil prices fall as Vance blames Iran war for Republican losses

Oil prices fell on November 4 as US Vice President JD Vance blamed the Iran war for Republican losses in the midterm elections, while analysts said the result could increase President Donald Trump’s incentive to seek a deal with Iran. Hindustan Times reported that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down nearly 9% at $87.59 a barrel and Brent crude futures more than 9% at $93.91 by 12:36 p.m. Eastern time. Hindustan Times and CNBC share a reporting origin for this market coverage.

At settlement, WTI was down 8.3% at $88.12 a barrel and Brent 8.7% at $94.62, CNBC reported. Those closing figures were smaller than the earlier intraday declines. The two reports document the price move but do not establish that the election results or Vance’s post alone caused it.

Election result put Iran policy in focus

Democrats won major victories in Tuesday’s elections, CNBC reported. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNBC that Democrats might try to restrict funding for the war. The network said the election outcome and Vance’s comments led the market to see Trump as having a greater incentive to reach an agreement with Iran. That was an interpretation of possible political pressure, not confirmation of negotiations or a deal.

Oil markets weigh diplomacy against escalation

Prices had risen more than 10% in October as markets priced in the risk of post-election escalation, CNBC reported. By Wednesday, futures had fallen more than 14% that week. The network also reported that senior US and Iranian officials had indicated openness to a diplomatic settlement, after the conflict disrupted global energy supplies for eight months.

Analysts differed on what the sell-off signaled. Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC, told CNBC the decline could be overdone, describing a market reacting quickly amid post-election emotion. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former adviser to President George W. Bush, told the network that military escalation in the region remained more likely.

An AP Voter Poll cited by the Associated Press report carried by The Hindu surveyed more than 100,000 voters. About six in ten said the United States made the wrong decision to take military action against Iran; the report also said most voters dissatisfied with the war backed the Democratic candidate in their House race, while the war was not the leading issue for most voters. The White House did not immediately respond on Wednesday to a request for comment about Vance’s post, the AP report said.

For earlier coverage of Trump’s response to the midterm losses and the Iran war, see [NewsJaws’ report on Trump’s account of the Republican defeat].