NOAA winter outlook points to possible drought relief across parts of the southern US
The December-to-February forecast favors wetter conditions across much of the South, but also raises flood risks and points to possible drought deterioration in some areas.
NOAA's winter outlook, released October 15 for December through February, projects wetter-than-average conditions across much of the southern United States, offering a chance of relief in some drought-stricken areas. The forecast also points to potentially hazardous precipitation and drier conditions in other regions.
Where drought could ease this winter
CBS News reported that the wetter outlook covers the Southwest, Southeast and parts of the East Coast. It said drought could improve or end in portions of the Southwest, southern Great Plains and East Coast. The Associated Press identified possible drought improvement in the central and southern Rockies, lower Mississippi Valley and areas of the East, as well as western Oregon and Washington.
The regional picture is uneven. CBS reported that drought could develop or worsen in some areas, including Oregon and eastern Washington. The Associated Press described potential improvement in western Oregon and Washington. Those geographic descriptions should not be read as a single statewide forecast.
Drier-than-average conditions are expected in parts of the northern United States. The Associated Press identified the Great Lakes and northern Rockies, along with Hawaii and much of Alaska; CBS also pointed to the northern Mountain West and parts of the northern tier.
Warmer temperatures and winter weather risks
The outlook favors above-average temperatures across large areas. The Associated Press reported that at least part of 41 of the contiguous 48 states is forecast to be warmer than normal, with no state or portion of a state forecast cooler than average. Several southern states are expected to be near normal, including parts of the Southeast such as Florida, according to CBS.
NOAA does not issue seasonal snowfall predictions, the Associated Press reported. Its meteorologists nevertheless expect below-normal snowfall across much of the northern US and say some southern areas could receive more snow than usual. Those expectations do not specify how much snow individual states will get.
National Weather Service director Ken Graham warned that a strong El Niño would not eliminate severe winter weather, CBS reported. He said heavy precipitation falling on dry soil can contribute to flash floods and mudslides. The Associated Press also quoted a Weather Channel meteorologist warning that potentially powerful atmospheric rivers could bring flooding and landslides, and a National Weather Service official warning of possible tornadoes in Florida and parts of the Southeast.
Forecasters expect the current El Niño to reach record levels in fall or winter, according to the Associated Press. An MIT research scientist told the news agency that the unprecedented conditions leave no close historical comparison, reducing his confidence in the outlook. The Associated Press also cited NOAA data showing that US winters have warmed about 4°F (2.2°C) over the past 50 years, predominantly because of human-caused climate change.
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Sources and context
- Winter may bring snow and rain to some drought-stricken U.S. states, new forecast showsCBS News
- US winter is likely to be wetter and warmer, forecasters say, with more snow in the southAssociated Press, republished by The Guardian
AI-assisted article checked against the listed sources. NewsJaws did not conduct interviews or attend the reported events.