Persian Gulf region oil flows exceed prewar level as Hormuz traffic lags
Kpler figures cited by the Wall Street Journal put regional oil flows above their prewar level in the week through October 18, even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained below it.
Oil flows from the Persian Gulf region averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week through October 18, exceeding the cited prewar level of 23.3 million, according to Kpler figures in a Wall Street Journal report republished by Hindustan Times. The total includes shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes, helping maintain supply despite continued danger to tankers.
Hormuz traffic remained below its prewar level. Preliminary figures in the report republished by Hindustan Times put flows through the strait, including offshore transfers in the Gulf of Oman, at about 14 million barrels a day during the same week, or 82% of the prewar level. The higher regional total includes oil shipped by other routes.
How oil is moving around the Strait of Hormuz
The Wall Street Journal described tankers loading inside the Gulf, crossing Hormuz and transferring cargo near Oman to ships bound for distant markets. It reported that American air cover provides some protection along a corridor off the Omani coast. Pipelines through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also carry oil along routes that avoid the strait. Kpler estimated that about 40% of non-Iranian crude shipped out of the Gulf bypassed Hormuz in September, compared with 17% before the war.
The International Energy Agency reported an earlier rise in shipments. It said Gulf of Oman transfers helped raise September flows through Hormuz by 3.7 million barrels a day to 10.9 million, while exports using bypass routes rose by 970,000 barrels a day to 5.6 million as flows through the East-West pipeline returned.
Attacks and shipping costs threaten the recovery
The crossing remains hazardous. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran was using drones, missiles and small boats against shipping. Maritime security company Vanguard said the tanker Loyalty was struck by a rocket-propelled grenade launched from a small boat while carrying Iraqi crude; the projectile damaged a fresh water tank. The IEA said increased attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers in October threatened further gains.
Moving oil has also become more expensive. Kpler put freight for a supertanker carrying Gulf crude to China near a record $37.37 a barrel, while Windward analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann said war-risk insurance had climbed to as much as 10% of a vessel’s value from less than 3%, according to the Wall Street Journal report. Traders cited in the report questioned whether improved flows could last if fighting resumed.
The IEA said observed global oil inventories were 509 million barrels below prewar levels at the end of September, with on-land stocks at their lowest since at least 2016. That leaves less stock to cushion another disruption, while higher freight and insurance costs can feed into what consumers pay for fuel.
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Sources and context
- More Oil Is Now Coming Out of the Persian Gulf Than Before the Iran WarHindustan Times (republishing Wall Street Journal report)
- Oil Market Report – October 2026International Energy Agency
AI-assisted article checked against the listed sources. NewsJaws did not conduct interviews or attend the reported events.