UK migration figures: Net migration falls as asylum claims and small-boat arrivals decline

UK net migration fell to an estimated 171,000 in 2025, while asylum claims and small-boat arrivals also declined in their latest reporting periods. The figures matter for a debate often framed around a single migration number, but they measure different activities and cannot be treated as one up-to-date total. The most recent small-boat count runs to 27 September 2026; the net migration estimate covers the year to December 2025.

Net migration: a provisional estimate for 2025

The Office for National Statistics estimated long-term net migration at 171,000 in the year ending December 2025, nearly half its revised estimate of 331,000 for the previous year. Its figures put long-term immigration at 813,000, down 20% from a revised 1,012,000, and emigration at 642,000, 38,000 below the previous year's revised figure. Net migration is the difference between people moving to the UK and people leaving for at least 12 months.

The ONS said a 47% fall in non-EU+ arrivals for work-related reasons was the main reason net migration continued to fall; overall emigration fell slightly. Published on 21 May, these are provisional estimates. The agency says recent estimates remain provisional for a year and may change as more data and updated methods become available. They therefore describe movement during 2025, not the number of people arriving or leaving this September.

Asylum claims and the decision backlog

The Home Office recorded 85,891 people claiming asylum in the year ending June 2026, down 21% from the preceding year. Claims had reached a recent peak of 109,662 in the year ending September 2025 and subsequently fell, although the latest total remained above levels typically seen before 2021. An asylum claim is an application for protection; it is distinct from an estimate of net migration or a count of visas granted.

At the end of June, 40,168 people linked to 32,401 cases were awaiting an initial asylum decision, according to the Home Office's asylum-system statistics. That was 56% fewer people than a year earlier and the lowest level since June 2019. The measure concerns first decisions, rather than every case still moving through the wider asylum and appeals process.

Small boats: latest counts and longer context

The BBC migration tracker reported 19,135 small-boat arrivals between 1 January and 27 September 2026, 42% below the same period in 2025. This is a year-to-date count drawn from daily Home Office data. It should be distinguished from the Home Office's final quarterly statistics, which recorded 33,374 arrivals in the year ending June 2026, down 23% from 43,309 in the previous 12 months. Those totals cover different windows, so their percentage changes answer different questions.

The Home Office's daily table recorded 781 arrivals in 10 boats on 23 September, followed by 44 arrivals on 24 September, none on 25 or 26 September, and 526 arrivals in seven boats on 27 September. The daily figures are provisional and can change before the final quarterly release. The Home Office also cautions against reading too much into short periods or comparisons across seasons because weather and seasonal patterns affect crossings.

The longer series offers context for the latest fall. A House of Commons Library briefing published on 2 September said annual crossings peaked at about 46,000 in 2022, fell in 2023 and rose to about 41,000 in 2025. The Home Office's year-to-June 2026 total was broadly in line with equivalent periods ending in June 2024 and June 2022. The Library cautions that detected arrivals do not capture every unauthorised entry and that changes in detections can reflect surveillance and enforcement as well as attempted crossings.

The Home Office counted an average of 65 people per arriving small boat in the year ending June 2026, up from 56 a year earlier and seven in the year ending December 2018. It recorded 511 arriving boats, 33% fewer than a year earlier. Those figures describe detected arrivals: the department excludes people who arrive undetected and those stopped or returned by French authorities. A change in the number of boats therefore does not translate directly into the same-sized change in the number of people.

Visa grants measure permission, not travel

The BBC tracker lists 727,487 visa grants in the year ending June 2026, down 15% year on year. Study visas accounted for 53% of the listed grants, and people from China were the largest group granted study visas, at 23%. The tracker cautions that a grant records permission to travel or stay, not whether or when its recipient entered the UK. The visa series therefore cannot be added to asylum claims or compared directly with the ONS estimate of people who actually moved for at least a year.