UNEP report says exceeding 1.5C is unavoidable as emissions cuts fall short

The UN Environment Programme warned on 21 October that significant global warming beyond 1.5C above pre-industrial levels is now unavoidable. Its new Emissions Gap Report says steep worldwide emissions cuts could limit the overshoot and leave a path back below the threshold later this century, making governments’ next climate decisions consequential for how high temperatures climb.

The report, titled The Point of Return, was published ahead of the COP31 climate summit scheduled for next month in Antalya, Turkey. In its lowest achievable overshoot scenario, UNEP projects temperatures peaking at about 1.7C to 1.8C around the middle of the century.

Emissions cuts needed to limit the overshoot

RTÉ reported that UNEP projects about 2.8C of warming this century if current government policies continue. Fully implemented national pledges would still lead to about 2.6C, while achieving those pledges alongside additional long-term net-zero commitments would lower the projection to about 2.1C. Those figures describe different sets of commitments, rather than competing estimates for the same pathway.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said exceeding 1.5C need not mean giving up the Paris Agreement’s ambition. ‘Overshoot is not surrender,’ he said, arguing that countries could still keep it as small and short as possible and bring temperatures back below 1.5C before the end of the century. He called on G20 countries to lead and urged developed nations to provide affordable finance for developing economies’ energy transitions.

Returning below 1.5C would require vast carbon removal

UNEP estimates that a return to 1.5C after overshoot would require removing and permanently storing about 320 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide this century. RTÉ reported that the agency acknowledged considerable uncertainty about whether removal on that scale can be achieved. UNEP also calculated that every further five years with global CO2 emissions at current levels would add roughly 0.1C to peak warming.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that every additional fraction of warming and every extra year above 1.5C increases the risk of severe climate impacts. The report also identified progress: renewable electricity generation overtook coal-fired generation worldwide for the first time in 2025. Yet global greenhouse gas emissions have still not definitively peaked, according to RTÉ’s account of the report.