US small-business confidence improves, but inflation and economic worries persist
A third-quarter survey found stronger confidence and comfortable cash flow for many respondents, while most did not rate the wider US economy as healthy.
US small-business confidence rose in the third quarter, according to a Justworks/U.S. Chamber of Commerce survey examined in an 18 October report by the Guardian. The index increased to 70.5 from 66.5 in the previous quarter, but the findings also showed persistent concern about inflation and the wider economy.
The quarterly index measures owners’ confidence and challenges. Among the 750 small businesses surveyed, 72% said they were comfortable with their current cash flow, while only 27% said the US economy was in good health. Inflation was the biggest challenge for 54% of respondents. Those answers describe the surveyed businesses, rather than every small firm in the country.
Hiring and costs give a mixed picture
The Guardian described small-business confidence as generally stable, citing a separate National Federation of Independent Business survey in which optimism slipped to just below its long-term average and uncertainty rose slightly. In that survey, 26% of owners named labour quality as their leading concern and 20% named inflation. The different figures come from separate surveys with different questions; they are not competing estimates of the same measure.
Expansion plans weakened in the NFIB survey, although 17% of owners still planned to add jobs over the following three months. Payroll platform Gusto estimated that small businesses added 28,000 jobs in September, the eighth consecutive month of gains after a decline in January. Its estimate was above a revised gain of 18,500 in August, the Guardian reported.
Paychex offered a steadier reading. Its September report said hiring among firms with fewer than 50 employees essentially matched its 2026 average to date and described employment as stable. Across private employers of all sizes, ADP reported 90,000 jobs added in September, with hiring accelerating for the first time since May. The broader ADP total is not a small-business jobs figure.
What the figures mean for the economic debate
The surveys show why owners can feel reasonably secure about their own cash flow while remaining uneasy about costs and the national economy. The Guardian raised the question of whether their mood could help President Donald Trump ahead of November’s midterm elections, but the reported business indicators do not establish how owners will vote or whether his approval ratings will change.
Gene Marks, who wrote the Guardian report, said his own clients in Philadelphia had mostly been doing well this year while struggling with higher costs and a tight labour market. That account is an observation from his clients, separate from the survey results. It adds a local example of the pressures reflected in the national findings.
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Sources and context
- Small business owners are doing OK – but will that help Trump overcome his low approval ratings?The Guardian
- Small Business Index Q3 2026U.S. Chamber of Commerce
AI-assisted article checked against the listed sources. NewsJaws did not conduct interviews or attend the reported events.