WMO forecasts unusually strong El Niño warming in Pacific, warns of regional risks
The agency projects a Niño 3.4 sea-surface-temperature anomaly of about 3.8°C for November through January. UN officials warn of possible floods, droughts and pressure on food supplies.
The World Meteorological Organization forecast on October 21 that El Niño could bring unusually strong Pacific warming between November 2026 and January 2027, according to Reuters. UN officials warned in Geneva that the weather pattern could raise flood and drought risks across several regions, threatening food and water supplies.
The WMO’s seasonal outlook projects an average sea-surface-temperature anomaly of about 3.8°C in the Niño 3.4 region over those three months, with warming expected to peak around December. That figure is a forecast relative to normal temperatures, rather than a measurement of warming that has already occurred.
How the Pacific forecast compares with past El Niños
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the organization had not seen a 3.8°C anomaly in its records. Past record El Niños had reached around 3°C and caused substantial impacts around the world, she said, according to Reuters. The projected figure therefore points to an unusually strong event if conditions develop as forecast.
El Niño is the warm phase of the naturally occurring El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle, which influences weather far beyond the tropical Pacific. The WMO publishes its Global Seasonal Climate Update monthly to assess large-scale climate drivers and expected temperature and rainfall patterns over the coming three months.
Flood, drought and food risks by region
Flooding risks could rise in southern Africa from November, the WMO said, according to Reuters. In Southeast Asia, warmer conditions and a lack of rainfall could affect agriculture and water supplies. Latin America could see increased rainfall. Those risks differ by region: the outlook does not imply that every place affected by El Niño will face the same weather.
The WMO warned that El Niño-linked weather extremes could add to pressure on housing, water, sanitation and health services. That makes preparation relevant beyond farms and weather agencies: flooding can strain essential services, while dry conditions can make water supplies and crop production harder to maintain.
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher called for urgent preparations and warned that about 50 million people could face increased hunger, Reuters reported. He described this El Niño as a ‘wrecking ball’ that could bring extreme heat, droughts and floods to Latin America, eastern and southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific. His hunger figure is a warning about potential exposure, not a count of people already affected.
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Sources and context
- El Nino 'wrecking ball' could cause record Pacific temperature rise, UN saysReuters, republished by Yahoo News
- Global Seasonal Climate Update for November-December-January 2026World Meteorological Organization
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